NEW YORK - The cryptocurrency market is closely monitoring Bitcoin as it hovers above the $36,000 mark, with investors and analysts weighing in on its potential movements. On Tuesday, the digital currency traded at $36,714, bolstered by expectations of a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The market is holding its breath until November 17, when the SEC's window for approving such ETFs closes.
Ali Martinez, a notable figure on the X social media app, has raised concerns that Bitcoin could fall from its current support level of $36,400 to lower demand zones at $34,300 and even $30,200 if it does not maintain its footing. These zones are marked by high "UTXO Realized Price Distribution" (URPD) readings on Glassnode due to significant Bitcoin purchases in the past.
The SEC is currently reviewing approximately a dozen BTC spot ETF filings, with BlackRock (NYSE:BLK)'s filing anticipated to be the first approved this year. BlackRock is also gearing up for an Ethereum ETF launch and has quashed rumors about an XRP-based ETF. However, potential political issues leading to a U.S. government shutdown could complicate the SEC's approval process for these Bitcoin ETFs.
Meanwhile, Henrik Zeberg provided a more bullish outlook on Twitter, suggesting that Bitcoin could potentially reach as high as $180,000 by analyzing past cycles. He pointed out a 95-fold increase from 2016-2018 and a 16-fold rise from 2019 to November 2021. Despite a less impressive 1.3-fold increase from a late 2022 low point, Zeberg forecasts a short-term parabolic rise before an expected recession that could negatively affect risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin's recent price movements have seen it surge over 9% between November 7 and November 9 to $37,903 before experiencing a drop of 5.66%. The digital currency has since seen fluctuations within the $37,400 range but is currently trading at $26,670 after a recent uptick of 1.13%.
Investors are now eyeing key support levels highlighted by Martinez using Glassnode's URPD metric. If Bitcoin breaks below the critical supports at $36,400 and $34,300, it may face a decline of up to 16% to the major support level at $30,200. However, there is strong resistance between this point and $25,000 due to the concentration of investors' cost basis in that range.
The crypto community awaits further developments as these analyses and the SEC's decision on Bitcoin ETFs will likely have significant impacts on the market's direction in the near term.
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