Sharecast - Berenberg stated that cyclical stocks with high indebtedness "do not put investors at ease", noting that the more than 80% decline in Synthomer (LON:SYNTS) shares over the last 12 months was "a case in point". However, the German bank said it was "more optimistic".
"The firm has a leverage problem, although not a liquidity issue. Last year's £276.0m rights issue has bought time to recover," said Berenberg. "Construction market headwinds mean that the company will, in our view, show minimal progress in organically cutting its absolute net debt pile, even allowing for self-help."
Berenberg, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock, noted that the moment a cyclical recovery, fast or slow, materialises, Synthomer shares should jump – perhaps as drastically as they have fallen.
"We have reduced our operating profit forecasts by a high-single-digit percentage on average for 2023-25, mainly reflecting lower construction-linked margins and volumes. Shares trade on 2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 4.2x, compared to long-run average of around 11.0x. Our price target would imply circa 9.0x," added Berenberg.
Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com