Analysts See Steady Growth For Acadia Pharma's Nuplazid

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• Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ACAD) reported a Q4 EPS loss of $(0.26), missing the consensus of $(0.24) and sales of $136.49 million, beating the consensus of $134.07 million.
• For FY23, the company expects Nuplazid sales of $520-$550 million compared to a consensus of $569.16 million.
• Raymond James, maintaining a Market Perform rating, writes that 2023 revenue guidance does not include potential contributions from trofinetide, with a PDUFA date of March 12 for Rett Syndrome. The analyst projects around $14.5 million in trofinetide revenues in 2023.
• Given the lack of treatment options for Rett patients, if approved, there may be strong early demand for trofinetide. However, a high attrition rate is expected, given its AE profile and modest benefits.
• Beyond Rett, ACP-204 (next-generation pimavanserin) is exciting but awaits de-risking data before attributing value to the asset.
• Needham writes that while the management sees signs of stabilization in the PDP market, it is not yet seeing definitive signs of recovery. The analyst expects the lower-than-expected Nuplazid guidance to drive some weakness in the stock.
• Overall, it remains on the sidelines to foresee limited upside vs. cons. for Nuplazid sales in the near term and trofinetide launch.
• The analyst keeps a Hold rating.
• Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates its Overweight rating and increases the price target to $28 from $27.
• The analyst is optimistic about the revenue beat following the 3Q22 miss, with new patient adds in long-term care facilities on a vector to returning to pre-pandemic levels.
• The analyst also notes recent publications pointing to real-world evidence supporting Nuplazid's differentiated clinical profile, which might provide modest but steady sales growth in 2023.
• Price Action: ACAD shares are up 10.72% at $21.48 on the last check Tuesday.

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