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UBS revises up euro/dollar, bond yield forecasts

Published 01/02/2018, 11:10
Updated 01/02/2018, 11:20
© Reuters. The logo of Swiss bank UBS is seen at a branch office in Basel
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LONDON (Reuters) - UBS has revised up its expectations for how much the euro will strengthen against the dollar, saying on Thursday it now expects the single currency to trade at $1.30 by the end of 2018 as the market prices in stronger global growth.

Previously, the Swiss investment bank believed the single currency would close the year at $1.25. The euro has already crossed that threshold this year, though it was trading slightly under it on Thursday, at $1.2437 (EUR=).

The bank also revised up its forecasts for key bond yields. It believes Germany's 10-year bond yield will be 1 percent by end of 2018 now, compared to its previous forecast of 0.90 percent and current trading levels 0.71 percent. (DE10YT=RR)

"What has surprised us is the speed of the market moves. This extraordinary speed is a result of strong growth momentum keeping financial conditions easy. On the back of this growth momentum, our Economics team have revised their growth views across regions," UBS strategists said in a note.

UBS also now believes sterling will end 2018 at $1.37 , versus expectations of $1.32 previously, but down from its current levels of around $1.42.

The Swiss bank also believes the dollar will trade at 117 yen at the end of the year compared to its previous forecast of 122 yen .

© Reuters. The logo of Swiss bank UBS is seen at a branch office in Basel

UBS also revised its 10-year U.S. Treasury yield forecast upwards, and now expects it to be 2.90 percent by the end of 2018 as against its previous forecast of 2.70 percent. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.74 percent on Thursday. (US10YT=RR)

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