🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

Sterling rises versus euro and dollar, eyes BoE policy path

Published 25/04/2024, 10:38
© Reuters. Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 6, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File photo
GBP/USD
-
EUR/GBP
-

By Stefano Rebaudo

(Reuters) - Sterling rose versus the dollar and the euro as investors assessed the Bank of England's monetary policy path after recent mixed signals from policymakers.

The pound dropped late last week and on Monday versus the greenback as Governor Andrew Bailey said that inflation was broadly declining in line with BoE forecasts, which would indicate that interest rates might fall more quickly than the market currently expects.

On Tuesday, it jumped against the dollar after a softer reading of monthly U.S. business activity battered the dollar.

"With sterling undershooting the move in UK rates and more balanced commentary this week, our bias would be to fade the recent dovishness and for the pound to retrace some of its losses," said Kamal Sharma, forex strategist at BofA.

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Tuesday that rate cuts remained some way off, even if the passage of time and an absence of bad news on inflation had brought them closer.

Some analysts argued that recent British economic data would suggest a later rather than earlier start of the BoE monetary easing cycle.

"However, with June now pricing in a greater chance for cuts, we doubt that the pound will immediately recapture its recent highs ahead of the May BoE rate meeting," BofA's Sharma added, flagging the May 9th quarterly inflation report as the most important event for the British currency.

Sterling was up 0.4% at $1.2519, having risen 0.8% on Tuesday, the most in one day since mid-December. It dropped around 1.5% from Thursday to Monday.

The pound's decline against the euro resulted from the dovish comments from BoE officials, which were further compounded by solid economic data in the euro area. This included euro zone business activity expanding at its fastest pace in April of nearly a year, and Germany's private sector unexpectedly returned to growth.

© Reuters. Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 6, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File photo

Sterling recouped some losses in the last two sessions, with the euro at 85.64 pence per pound after hitting on Monday 86.44, its highest level since early January.

UBS maintained its 85-87 range view for the euro against the pound, with a target at 85 for the end of the second quarter.

 

 

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.