ExchangeRates.org.uk - A currency surge pushed the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) to 6-month lows below 1.25 in November before a rally to near 1.27.MUFG expects Trump policies will trigger further dollar strength in the first quarter of 2025 and push GBP/USD to lows around 1.2350.
Nevertheless, it expects a rally to 1.30 at the end of next year as dollar strength fades.
MUFG expects a rapid start for the Trump Administration in January with a raft of tariffs, action on immigration and legislation to extend tax cuts.
The bank expects that this combination will provide further dollar support and push the Pound lower.
At this stage, MUFG expects that the Fed will only cut rates three times during 2025 due to fresh inflation concerns.
Nominal interest rates will tend to support the dollar, but the bank expects growth will be disappointing and higher inflation will also erode real yields and gradually sap dollar support.
As far as the UK is concerned, MUFG expects that the Bank of England has scope to cut interest rates to 3.75% next year as inflation pressures subside.
Rate cuts will limit scope for Pound support, but MUFG expects that the UK economy will be relatively insulated from US tariffs.
The Pound suffered sharp losses against the dollar on Monday and failed to hold best levels against the Euro.The US currency gained fresh support from trade concerns following comments from President-elect Trump as he threatened 100% tariffs on BRIC countries for their attempts to undermine the dollar in global trade.
Fears over a collapse in the French government also undermined the Euro and provided net dollar support.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate hit early highs at 1.2735 before a slide to 1.2620.
According to ING; “A much busier week in terms of US data will have a major say in whether the Fed cuts rates by 25bp on 18 December.
US data poses some downside risks to the dollar, but the continued and expanding threat of tariffs from the incoming Trump administration should limit the size of the correction.”
There are potential contradictions on currency policy and ING noted that some Administration and, despite Trump’s comments, some Republican figures will want a weaker dollar to boost exports.
ING did, however, add; “Trump's celebration of the mighty US dollar will make it more difficult for the president to sign off on any FX intervention to sell the dollar.”
There are also important US data releases this week which will have a significant impact on interest rate expectations.
The latest US jobs data will be released on Friday.
There was a weak reading last month with the increase in non-farm payrolls held to 12,000.
That data is likely to have been distorted by adverse weather conditions and there are expectations that there will be a rebound to around 200,000 this month.
The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Another weak report would trigger expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve policy easing while a stronger than expected report would lead to speculation that there will not be a rate cut at the December policy meeting.
There will be other important releases and Fed Chair Powell is due to speak on Wednesday.
Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics commented; "Given the continued resilience of the U.S. economy and a worsening outlook elsewhere, we don't think this is the start of a deeper setback for the dollar."
He added; "But the bar for a further shift in expected interest rates in favour of the U.S. in the near term is quite high.
A period of consolidation into year-end looks to us like the most likely scenario, although the risks remain skewed in favour of the dollar over the course of 2025."
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate surged to 1.2080 before a retreat to around 1.2050.
The Euro was undermined by increased concerns over the French budget situation and fresh bond losses.
According to French National Rally leader Le Pen, their budget demands have not been met and it will lodge a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Barnier.
The vote is expected on Wednesday with Le Pen stating that they would vote against the government.
Domestically there was mixed evidence; Nationwide reported a 1.2% increase in house prices for November after a 0.1% increase the previous month and compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.2% increase, but the manufacturing PMI index dipped to a 9-month low.
This content was originally published on ExchangeRates.org.uk