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Don't use low inflation to curb pay,Carney warns employers

Published 24/02/2015, 13:26
© Reuters. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England gives the bank's quarterly GDP and inflation forecasts at the Bank of England in London

By David Milliken and William Schomberg

LONDON (Reuters) - Bank of England chief Mark Carney warned employers on Tuesday not to use near-zero inflation as an excuse to offer staff low wage settlements, as that might derail Britain's economic recovery.

British wages have only recently started to rise faster than inflation after years of real-term falls.

Many firms will agree 2015 wage deals in coming months amid falling inflation and political uncertainty before national elections in May that are likely to be closely fought.

Carney told British lawmakers that although inflation was just 0.3 percent in January and might turn negative in coming months, the BoE was working to bring inflation back to its 2 percent annual target.

"The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) will conduct policy in order to bring inflation back to target, probably within two years, and that should inform people, particularly as they are forming judgements about appropriate wages," he said.

The recent rise in earnings has bolstered expectations that Britain's recovery is finally becoming self-sustaining after the financial crisis of 2007-09.

Average weekly earnings rose by an annual 2.1 percent in the three months to December, outstripping inflation by the biggest amount since April 2008.

The BoE predicted earlier this month that earnings would rise by an annual 3.5 percent in the final quarter of this year, still a bit below their growth rate before the financial crisis.

On Monday, a British government body recommended a 3 percent rise in the minimum wage, which would take it to 6.70 pounds an hour, the biggest real-term increase since 2007.

Carney said risks from low inflation in Britain related mainly to the labour market, not to deferred consumption as occurred in Japan, where deflation became entrenched.

Other policymakers are more concerned about the risk of inflation overshooting, however.

MPC member Martin Weale told the same parliamentary panel rates could rise sooner than markets expected. They currently price in a first rise in around a year.

Both Weale and fellow policymaker Ian McCafferty voted five times late last year to raise rates, before dropping this call in January in the face of tumbling oil prices.

Another MPC member, Kristin Forbes, said earlier on Tuesday that there could be a case to start raising rates soon due to potential future pressure from wages, financial stability risks or unsustainable borrowing patterns.

"Any could factor into a case to tighten monetary policy in the near future. But they do not currently appear to be generating a sufficient cost to merit a change in interest rates today," she said.

© Reuters. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England gives the bank's quarterly GDP and inflation forecasts at the Bank of England in London

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