Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: June 29 - July 3

Investing.com - Crude oil futures inched lower on Friday, as investors nervously eyed developments in Greece’s debt talks ahead of a looming repayment deadline.

Greece is due to repay €1.6 billion to the International Monetary Fund on June 30 but without a rescue package in place it is unclear if the payment can be met. If Greece misses the payment it risks going into default, which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro area.

Late on Friday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said the Greek government rejected the latest reform measures proposed by the country's creditors and instead called a surprise referendum for July 5.

European finance ministers refused to extend Greece’s bailout beyond June 30, despite Greek requests to extend the program until after the referendum, deepening doubt over Greece’s future in the euro zone.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in August slumped 7 cents, or 0.12%, to end the week at $59.63 a barrel. Nymex prices hit a session low of $58.76 earlier, the weakest level since June 9.

U.S. oil futures pared losses after industry research group Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by three last week to 628. The drop marks the 29th straight week of declines.

On the week, New York-traded oil futures declined 12 cents, or 0.57%, the second straight weekly loss, as worries over high domestic U.S. oil production, despite a declining rig count, weighed.

U.S. oil production has held around 9.6 million barrels a day in recent weeks, the highest level since the early 1970s.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent for August delivery hit a session low of $62.50, the weakest level since June 22, before closing at $63.26, up 6 cents, or 0.09%. For the week, London-traded Brent futures tacked on 69 cents, or 0.38%.

Meanwhile, the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $3.63 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $3.05 in the preceding week.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, tacked on 0.24% on Friday to close at 95.60.

The index ended the week up 1.46%, the first weekly gain in four weeks, amid indications that the U.S. economy is regaining strength after a recent bout of weakness, supporting the case for higher interest rates later this year.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on developments in Greece. Market participants will also be looking ahead to the latest U.S. employment report, due for release one day ahead of schedule on Thursday, for signs of improvement in the labor market, which the Federal Reserve is a key factor in deciding when to start hiking interest rates.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 29

In the euro zone, Germany and Spain are to release preliminary data on consumer inflation.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to publish a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, June 30

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a report on the unemployment rate, while Germany is to release data on retail sales and the change in the number of people employed.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, while the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on oil supplies.

Wednesday, July 1

China is to publish official data on private sector growth, as well as the final reading of the HSBC manufacturing index.

The U.S. is to release a report on ADP nonfarm payrolls and later in the day the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity. The U.S. will also publish its weekly government report on oil inventories.

Thursday, July 2

The U.S. is to release the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, and data on wage growth one day early, ahead of the Independence Day holiday. U.S. data on initial jobless claims and factory orders is also due for release.

Friday, July 3

China is to publish data on the HSBC services index.

The euro zone is to round up the week with a report on retail sales.

U.S. markets are to remain closed for the July 4th holiday.