50% Off! Beat the market in 2025 with InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Euro Slumps after PMI Reflects "Political Mess" Facing Eurozone

Published 22/11/2024, 09:36
Euro Slumps after PMI Reflects "Political Mess" Facing Eurozone
EUR/USD
-
EUR/GBP
-

PoundSterlingLIVE - Image © Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) Images

Euro exchange rates fell after the Eurozone's PMI survey for November revealed a deterioration in conditions, hastening the need for support from the European Central Bank (ECB).

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate slumped to below 1.04 for the first time in two years, putting it on course for parity after the S&P Global Eurozone composite PMI fell to 48.1 in November from 50 in October.

The market was expecting another reading of 50. A reading below 50 signals contraction for the Eurozone's private sector.

The Euro to Pound exchange rate fell a third of a per cent to 0.8297, giving a Pound to Euro conversion of 1.2050.

"Things could hardly have turned out much worse," says Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "The eurozone's manufacturing sector is sinking deeper into recession, and now the services sector is starting to struggle after two months of marginal growth."

Looking at the subcomponents, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI remains in contractionary territory at 45.2, down from 46. But the deterioration is most noticeable in the services sector, with the PMI falling to 49.2 from 51.6, defying expectations for a slight improvement to 51.8.

de la Rubia says the economic deterioration "is no surprise really, given the political mess in the biggest eurozone economies lately."

He explains that France's government is on shaky ground, and Germany's heading for early elections. "Throw in the election of Donald Trump as US president, and it is no wonder the economy is facing challenges. Businesses are just navigating by sight."

The S&P Global survey revealed confidence in the outlook for output dropped to the lowest for just over a year.

Companies continued to face challenges securing new orders, which decreased for the sixth month running and at a solid pace.

With new business and backlogs of work falling, firms also scaled back workforce numbers, noted the report.

This will alarm the ECB's policymakers, who are now likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December.

The economy is deteriorating more broadly now, and the ECB will judge that hastening the pace of its interest rate cuts is needed to help businesses and consumers.

This development would have a negative impact on the Euro, particularly against the Dollar and Pound, where interest rates are set to remain elevated for longer.

An original version of this article can be viewed at Pound Sterling Live

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.