50% Off! Beat the market in 2025 with InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Dollar slips lower on rate cut expectations; euro nears this year's high

Published 20/08/2024, 10:10
© Reuters.
EUR/USD
-
GBP/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
USD/CNY
-

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar slipped lower Tuesday, falling close to seven-month lows amid growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. 

At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% lower to 101.667, trading near its lowest level since early January. 

Dollar weakens on Fed rate cut optimism

The greenback has fallen over 2% over the course of the last month, in tandem with U.S. Treasury yields, amid growing optimism that the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates in September. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, and traders are looking for more clues as to when and by how much the central bank will cut rates.

"We think Powell’s take will be reassuring and consistent with a soft baseline of a string of 25s, but he will convey the Fed is open to 50s and the bar for this is not very high," said Evercore ISI.

However, “we do not expect a hard steer as to whether the first move will be a 25bp or 50bp cut,” Evercore ISI added. Instead, Powell is expected to suggest that the decision will hinge on the upcoming labor data.

The Fed has maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range since last July, and traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September, with a 24.5% chance of a 50 bp move. 

EUR/USD at highest this year

In Europe, EUR/USD traded largely unchanged at 1.1086, with weakness in the dollar lifting the euro to its highest this year.

The single currency is up around 2% this month, and is on course for its strongest monthly performance since November.

The eurozone consumer price index was confirmed at flat on the month in July, an annual gain of 2.6%, confirming that inflationary pressures remain subdued. 

GBP/USD traded 0.2% higher at 1.3009, climbing to a one-month high with sterling benefiting from dollar weakness.

Traders are split on the chances of another rate reduction by the BoE a month from now, after it kicked off a rate-cutting campaign earlier this month in a close-call decision.

Yen stable ahead of Ueda speech

In Asia, USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 146.35, close to the previous session’s near two-week high, but a fair distance away from the seven-month low of 141.67 it touched at the start of August.

Investor attention will be on Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda when he appears in parliament on Friday. Ueda is expected to discuss the BOJ's decision last month to raise rates and the focus will be on whether he sticks to his recent hawkish tone.

USD/CNY traded flat at 7.1395, taking little support from the People’s Bank of China keeping its benchmark loan prime rate on hold as expected.

August’s hold came after the PBOC unexpectedly cut the LPR in July, as it moved to further boost economic growth. 

 

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.