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Sterling trims losses, gilt yields tick higher after BoE treads carefully

Published 01/02/2024, 09:22
Updated 01/02/2024, 14:21
© Reuters. Woman holds British Pound banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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By Alun John

LONDON (Reuters) -British government bond yields rose, the pound cut some of its earlier losses, and UK shares pared gains on Thursday after the Bank of England held rates steady and said it wanted more evidence inflation would return to target before lowering rates.

The pound was last down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2670, compared with $1.2635 before the decision. It was at 85.36 per euro, having been weaker at 85.58 pence before the BoE's announcement.

Six out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates at a 15-year high of 5.25%. Two voted for a 0.25 percentage-point hike, while one voted for a cut of the same size.

"I think the market is very focused on the voting pattern and that two members still voting for a hike, has led the market into thinking that there was a slightly hawkish element. If you remove the voting pattern much of the rhetoric is fairly unsurprising," said Jane Foley head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

It marked the first time since August 2008 - early in the global financial crisis - that different policymakers have voted to move interest rates up and down at the same meeting.

In a notable softening of its language, the BoE dropped its warning that "further tightening" would be required if more persistent inflation pressure emerged.

But, said BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, who voted to hold rates steady: "We need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the 2% target, and stay there, before we can lower interest rates."

Market pricing last indicated around a two thirds' chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by May, roughly where it was before the BoE meeting, though it briefly dipped below 50% in the immediate aftermath of the decision.

Around 110 basis points of cuts are priced in for 2024.

"While things do still remain highly uncertain, we think that the outlook for the UK economy is far better than it was just a matter of months ago," said Matthew Landon, global market strategist at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) private bank.

"Markets have also adapted to the better UK growth picture since the start of the year, pricing out around 70 basis points worth of cuts for 2024. We think that could provide a more attractive entry point for UK fixed income across maturities.”

The 10-year British government bond, or gilt, yield was up around 2 basis points on the day at 3.82% having been at 3.79% before the decision.

© Reuters. Woman holds British Pound banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The rate sensitive two year gilt yield was flat at 4.22%.

Britain's blue chip FTSE share index was up 0.2%, paring some of its gains from before the meeting.

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