MILAN (Reuters) - Italian government bonds, protected by the European Central Bank, are unlikely to come under attack from financial markets this year, ratings agency S&P Global said on Wednesday.
The sustainability of Italy's 2.4 trillion euro ($2.63 trillion) public debt, one of the biggest government bond markets in the world, has long been seen as a potential weak link for the stability of the 20-nation euro zone.
However S&P Global EMEA chief economist Sylvain Broyer said the ECB's Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) will prevent the closely-watched gap between Italian and German benchmark bond yields from rising much above its current level.
At around 1.62 percentage points (162 basis points) this yield spread versus Germany is higher than for any other euro zone country, but it is sharply down from recent peaks of around 209 basis points in October.
"The mere existence of TPI should prevent the markets from playing against Italian government bonds," Broyer said at a press conference in Milan.
The ECB launched the TPI in 2022 to prevent unjustified spread widening. It is only available to countries that are compliant with the EU's fiscal framework.
S&P Global forecast that the yield on Italian 10-year government paper will average 4.7% this year, up from 3.8% on Wednesday, representing a considerable burden in debt-servicing costs for Rome's strained public finances.
This year Rome has to cope with higher funding needs than in 2023, while a deluge of euro zone government bond sales is fuelling unease in euro zone bond markets.
S&P Global said Italy's weak growth will be helped by post-COVID-19 pandemic funds from the European Union, which will prop up the country's stuttering economy.
U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) also said in a report this week that it did not foresee sovereign concerns emerging in Italy this year.
The bank cited the recent decline in government bond yields that "limit the upward pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio in coming years", a supportive EU fiscal backdrop, and ECB bond reinvestments throughout 2024.
($1 = 0.9138 euros)