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Macro week ahead: Will US inflation fall again, UK to eke out growth

Published 04/08/2023, 12:18
Updated 04/08/2023, 12:40
© Reuters.  Macro week ahead: Will US inflation fall again, UK to eke out growth
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Proactive Investors - With central bank announcements out of the way the focus in the macro week ahead will be US inflation figures for July, after the welcome fall in June and a UK GDP reading the second quarter.

The consumer price index in the US rose 3.0% on an annual basis in June, cooling from a 4.0% rise in May, better than hoped, while core inflation - which excludes items such as food and energy - was 4.8% in June, down from 5.3% in May.

The figure boosted hopes of a lower peak in US interest rates with many economists seeing the recent 25 basis points increase as the last in this cycle.

A further easing in July would take the pressure of the Federal Reserve at its next meeting at which it expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Trading Economics is predicting a drop to 2.8%.

The week kicks off with the Halifax house price index on Monday which is likely to confirm the house market remains under pressure.

Lender Nationwide reported house prices fell at their fastest rate since July 2009 as rising interest rates depress the property market.

It said the average house price fell by 3.8% year-on-year in July, the biggest drop since the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Expect more of the same from Halifax. The latest S&P construction PMI showed while the sector overall had returned to growth the residential market remained depressed.

On Tuesday, attention switches to the High Street with retail sales figures from the British retail Consortium

The picture for retailers appears mixed with the wet weather not helping.

The poor weather saw footfall on Britain’s high streets fall in July for the first time since 2009, according to retail analyst Springboard.

Paired with high interest rates and a rail overtime ban, poor weather created the perfect storm for UK shops, which penned a 0.3% decline in footfall over the month, it found.

But not all retailers are suffering as noted by the trading update from Next PLC (LON:NXT) which raised full-year profit expectations after a strong end of season Sale.

The week closes with a health check of the UK economy with GDP figures for June and the second quarter.

The Bank of England forecast quarterly growth of just 0.1% between April and June, a quarter disrupted by the extra bank holiday for the coronation.

Finally, US wholesale price inflation numbers will bring the curtain down on the week. They have been a reliable lead indicator for consumer prices and are seen falling to around 2.1% in July from 2.4% in June.

Read more on Proactive Investors UK

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