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Is Berkeley Group the diamond in a rough UK housebuilding market?

Published 02/12/2022, 12:41
Updated 02/12/2022, 13:11
© Reuters.  Is Berkeley Group the diamond in a rough UK housebuilding market?
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Proactive Investors - Southeast-based British housebuilder Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG) has received more than one vote of confidence in anticipation of its interim earnings call on Friday December 9.

Despite a cratering of the UK housing market and dwindling mortgage approvals, Berkeley Group is expected to meet profit forecasts, boding well for its long-term shareholder return programme.

The company was one of the few UK housebuilders to net a ‘buy’ rating from Berenberg, following the German bank’s recent 40% slash to pre-tax profit forecasts on the sector.

Berenberg called out other analysts for being too optimistic about the shape and timing of the UK housing market, yet in Berkeley, the bank saw a diamond in the rough.

“Despite reducing our base UK housing market volume and price assumptions, we leave our forecasts for Berkeley unchanged,” said analyst Harry Goad, adding: “We think that

the company can meet its multi-year profit before tax and capital return targets despite tougher market conditions.”

Justifications for the positive outlook included:

  • The size of Berkeley’s order book
  • Its traditional conservatism on guidance and
  • Its more resilient customer base

As a result, Goad reiterated his ‘buy’ rating and 4,500p price target.

Caveats

“With mortgage approvals plummeting in October after cheaper fixed rates disappeared, there will be concerns that Berkeley’s resilient showing so far could take a bit of a knock,” noted Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown (LON:HRGV).

However, the group’s London focus, where international demand has remained more consistent, “may mean it can maintain what have been some enviable margins,” said Streeter.

In Berkeley’s September trading update, the group admitted that “the operating environment remains volatile”, with cost inflation running at 5-10%.

So stakeholders should watch out for build costs as a response to this inflationary pressure, particularly since selling prices have fallen, “however they have remained above the group’s business plan level which should provide a bit of a buffer,” noted Streeter.

While Peel Hunt outlined a positive long-term direction for Berkeley Group given that its “portfolio of bigger sites should give it more consistency and volume growth,” analysts also called it “one of the more expensive housebuilders in the sector recently”.

BKG shares have fallen around 20% year to date, compared to a sector average of 42%, according to Pell Hunt’s statistics.

Read more on Proactive Investors UK

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