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Irish debt less sustainable than debt-to-GDP ratio implies - NTMA

Published 22/07/2016, 17:01
© Reuters. A road sign stands in front of a building site for a hotel that was never completed in Edenderry, Ireland

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland's ability to service its debts is riskier across a range of measures than implied by a debt-to-GDP ratio distorted by dramatic revisions to economic growth, research from the debt agency showed on Friday.

Ireland's debt fell below that of France, Austria and almost as low as Germany's at 78.7 percent of gross domestic product, from the 93.8 percent originally estimated, after revised data showed Irish GDP ballooned by 26 percent last year.

While a swath of secondary numbers points to an economy still in sharp recovery, the disproportionate jump in GDP - primarily due to a reclassification of multinational companies activity - have made it a sub-optimal measure of economic activity, the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) said.

In an updated presentation to investors, the NTMA said that meant other metrics of debt serviceability are required aside from the debt-to-GDP metric traditionally used by investors to assess a country's ability to pay and refinance its debt.

The NTMA's research showed that while Ireland's debt-to-GDP fell well below the euro zone average of 91 percent, its debt as a percentage of general government revenue is far higher at 286 percent compared to the 195 percent across the bloc.

Only Greece and Portugal, which like Ireland were bailed out during the financial crisis but have been far slower to recover, had a higher reading last year.

Similarly, the interest Ireland pays on its debt - which has fallen sharply recently as it refinanced bailout loans and sold longer-dated bonds at increasing lower yield - is still higher at 9.6 percent than the euro zone average of 5.2 percent.

However Ireland's interest bill has not fallen as fast as Spain's or Italy's, despite its higher credit rating, because it has not had to refinance as much debt while yields have been so low, NTMA chief executive Conor O'Kelly told a parliamentary committee on Thursday.

© Reuters. A road sign stands in front of a building site for a hotel that was never completed in Edenderry, Ireland

The average interest rate on Ireland's debt should fall further over the coming year, O'Kelly said.

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