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Weak U.S. wholesale stocks point to cut in fourth-quarter growth estimate

Published 10/02/2015, 15:54
© Reuters. To match feature RETAIL-HOLIDAYSALES-INVENTORY/
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By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale inventories barely rose in December, the latest suggestion that fourth-quarter growth could be revised lower.

Still, the economic outlook remains bright, with other data on Tuesday showing a jump in job openings in December.

Wholesale inventories edged up 0.1 percent as lower crude oil prices weighed on the value of petroleum stocks, the Commerce Department said. Stocks at wholesalers had increased by an unrevised 0.8 percent in November.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast wholesale inventories rising 0.2 percent in December.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data. U.S. stocks were trading higher on hopes of a deal in Greece's debt negotiations, while prices for Treasuries fell. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. The component that goes into the calculation of GDP - wholesale stocks excluding autos - nudged up 0.1 percent.

The report, together with last week's data showing a 0.3 percent fall in manufacturing inventories in December, suggested the boost to GDP growth from restocking in the fourth quarter was probably not as large as initially thought.

The government estimated last month that inventories added 0.8 percentage point to the economy's annualised 2.6 percent growth pace in the fourth quarter.

Prior to Tuesday's inventories data, a larger-than-anticipated trade deficit in December had led economists to expect that fourth-quarter GDP growth could be lowered by as much as three-tenths of a percentage point.

The government will publish its revised GDP growth estimate later this month.

The moderate pace of inventory accumulation, however, could be a boost to first-quarter growth, which also continues to be supported by a strengthening labour market.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said job openings surged to 5.03 million in December, the highest level since January 2001, from 4.85 million in November.

Employment growth is accelerating. Government data last Friday showed the economy added more than a million jobs over the past three months, a feat last achieved in late 1997.

The increase in the number of people receiving a paycheck, combined with the stimulus from lower gasoline prices, should boost consumer spending and blunt the blow on the economy from weaker exports and business investment.

In December, wholesale inventories were also held back by declines in the stocks of electrical goods, lumber, drugs and apparel. Auto inventories rose 0.3 percent.

© Reuters. To match feature RETAIL-HOLIDAYSALES-INVENTORY/

Sales at wholesalers fell 0.4 percent in December after a similar decline in November. At December's sales pace it would take 1.22 months to clear shelves, down from 1.21 months in November.

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