Proactive Investors - Average UK house prices increased by 0.6% in the 12 months to July, the slowest increase since July 2019 and down from a revised 1.9% rise in June, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The average UK house price was £290,000 in July 2023, which is £2,000 higher than 12 months ago, but £2,000 below the recent peak in November 2022.
Gabriella Dickens at Pantheon Macroeconomics explained the official index is based on completed transactions, which depend on mortgage offers made over the previous few months.
"As a result, further declines in the official index over the coming months look likely, given that timelier measures point to further weakness," she thinks.
She doubts prices will pick up later this year either, "given that the drop back in mortgage rates over the last month or two has been fairly minimal".
"Consumers’ confidence is still very weak by past standards and expectations of further house price falls remain entrenched," she pointed out.
"On balance, then, we expect a peak-to-trough fall of around 6%, with the nadir coming at the end of the year," she said.