🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

Sturdy U.S. payroll gains eyed, but wages still tepid

Published 05/12/2014, 06:15
© Reuters. Job seekers wait to meet with employers at a career fair in New York City
STAN
-

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employment growth likely accelerated a bit in November, but wage gains probably remained tepid, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates near zero well into next year.

Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 230,000 jobs last month after rising by 214,000 in October, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Seasonal hiring is, however, a wild card.

The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at a six-year low of 5.8 percent.

November would mark the 10th straight month that job growth has exceeded 200,000, the longest such stretch since 1994 and further confirmation the economy is weathering slowdowns in China and the euro zone, as well as a recession in Japan.

"The U.S. economy remains the best-looking house in an ugly neighbourhood," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester Pennsylvania.

The Labor Department will release its closely watched employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT).

Data ranging from manufacturing to automobile sales have pointed to momentum in the economy.

But strengthening labour market conditions have yet to spur faster wage growth, a key factor that will determine the timing of the U.S. central bank's first rate hike.

Average hourly earnings are forecast rising 0.2 percent in November, which would leave them up 2.0 percent from a year ago. That's well below the increase of 3 percent or more economists say would make the Fed comfortable lifting benchmark overnight rates from near zero, where they have been since December 2008.

NO RUSH

"The fact that wage growth is low provides support to the Fed view that there is no rush to raise rates," said Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York.

Many economists expect the Fed to wait until mid-2015 before hiking rates.

Soft wage growth has been blamed on an array of factors, including still-ample labour market slack and low-paying jobs, especially in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors, that have tended to dominate job gains.

But with the labour market gradually tightening, wage growth is expected to pick up next year.

"We expect wages will firm going forward. Staffing companies have been reporting for months that firms are increasingly willing to pay more for the workers they need," said Michelle Girard, chief economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

Details of November's employment report are expected to be upbeat. Most of the measures Fed Chair Janet Yellen tracks to gauge the amount of slack in the labour market are seen showing further improvement.

Job gains are also expected to broad-based, in line with recent trends. Private payrolls are forecast rising 218,000, with sturdy gains in retail and transportation, reflecting hiring for the holiday season.

© Reuters. Job seekers wait to meet with employers at a career fair in New York City

Government employment is expected to have increased 12,000.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.