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Factbox - How Europe's previous bank test scenarios stacked up

Published 27/04/2014, 09:22
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LONDON (Reuters) - The "stress test" scenarios to be unveiled by the European Banking Authority (EBA) on Tuesday mark the third time Europe has set the likely and worst-case scenarios its biggest banks should prepare themselves NYSE:For.

The projections laid down in 2010 stood the test oNYSE:F time well, with just one country oNYSE:F the European Union's 27 members at that time - Greece - posting actual economic growth that was worse than the two-year cumulative worst-case scenario applied by the stress tests. Eight countries recorded worse unemployment than predicted in that year's stress test, though.

The 2011 stress test, designed at the height oNYSE:F the euro zone crisis, had a NYSE:Far greater margin oNYSE:F error. The actual 2012 economic growth oNYSE:F 18 EU countries was worse than the "adverse case" laid down NYSE:For that year in the 2011 test, and unemployment NYSE:Figures were worse than the adverse case NYSE:For eight countries.

A NYSE:Full breakdown oNYSE:F the key metrics oNYSE:F the 2010 and 2011 stress tests, on a country-by-country basis, is below. The source NYSE:For the predictions is EBA publications, while actual outcomes are sourced NYSE:From Eurostat.

2010 stress test

2010 GDP

Scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 1.1 -0.1 1.8 NO

Belgium 0.6 -0.3 2.3 NO

Cyprus 0.1 -0.7 1.3 NO

NYSE:Finland 0.9 -0.1 3.4 NO

NYSE:France 1.2 0.7 1.7 NO

Germany 1.2 0.2 4 NO

Greece -4.1 -4.6 -4.9 YES

Ireland -1.4 -2.1 -1.1 NO

Italy 0.7 -0.3 1.7 NO

Luxembourg 1.1 -0.1 3.1 NO

Malta 0.7 -0.8 4.1 NO

Netherlands 0.9 0 1.5 NO

Portugal 0.5 -0.3 1.9 NO

Slovakia 1.9 0.8 4.4 NO

Slovenia 1.3 0.7 1.3 NO

Spain -0.6 -1.4 -0.2 NO

Euro area 0.7 -0.2 2 NO

Bulgaria 0.4 -0.7 0.4 NO

Czech 1.4 0.9 2.5 NO

Republic

Denmark 1.5 0.8 1.4 NO

Estonia 1 -0.1 2.6 NO

Hungary 0.9 -0.2 1.1 NO

Latvia -3.3 -4.2 -1.3 NO

Lithuania 0.5 -0.9 1.6 NO

Poland 2.9 2.1 3.9 NO

Romania 0 -1.8 -1.1 NO

Sweden 1.4 0.9 6.6 NO

UK 0.6 -0.2 1.7 NO

2010 Unemployment

Scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 6 6.1 4.4 NO

Belgium 9.9 9.1 8.3 NO

Cyprus 6.6 6.7 6.3 NO

NYSE:Finland 10.2 10.4 8.4 NO

NYSE:France 10.2 10.2 9.3 NO

Germany 9.2 9.2 7.1 NO

Greece 11.7 11.8 12.6 YES

Ireland 14 14.1 13.9 NO

Italy 8.7 8.8 8.4 NO

Luxembourg 7.3 7.3 4.6 NO

Malta 7.4 7.6 6.9 NO

Netherlands 5.4 5.5 4.5 NO

Portugal 11.1 11.3 12 YES

Slovakia 12.8 12.9 14.5 YES

Slovenia 8.3 8.5 7.3 NO

Spain 20 20.3 20.1 NO

Euro area 10.7 10.8 10.1 NO

Bulgaria 8.8 9.2 10.3 YES

Czech 8.1 8.6 7.3 NO

Republic

Denmark 5.8 6 7.5 YES

Estonia 16 16.4 16.7 YES

Hungary 11.8 12.6 11.2 NO

Latvia 20.4 20.7 19.5 NO

Lithuania 17.1 17.6 17.8 YES

Poland 10.4 10.7 9.7 NO

Romania 8.1 8.5 7.3 NO

Sweden 10.2 10.2 8.6 NO

UK 8.7 9.1 7.8 NO

2011 GDP

Scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded

Austria 1.5 -1.2 2.8 NO

Belgium 1.5 -0.6 1.8 NO

Cyprus 1.3 -0.1 0.4 NO

NYSE:Finland 1.6 -0.6 2.8 NO

NYSE:France 1.5 -0.1 2 NO

Germany 1.7 -0.6 3.3 NO

Greece -2.6 -4.3 -7.1 YES

Ireland 2.6 1 2.2 NO

Italy 1.4 -0.3 0.4 NO

Luxembourg 1.8 -0.8 1.9 NO

Malta 1.6 -1.2 1.6 NO

Netherlands 1.6 -1 0.9 NO

Portugal 0.2 -2.3 -1.3 NO

Slovakia 2.6 -0.6 3 NO

Slovenia 2 0.6 0.7 NO

Spain 1 -1.2 0.1 NO

Bulgaria 4 2.8 1.8 NO

Czech 1.8 0.6 1.8 NO

Republic

Denmark 1.8 0.2 1.1 NO

Estonia 4 3 9.6 NO

Hungary 3.2 1.6 1.6 NO

Latvia 3.9 2.5 5.3 NO

Lithuania 3.1 2.4 6 NO

Poland 2.4 0.5 4.5 NO

Romania 3.6 2.1 2.3 NO

Sweden 2.1 0.9 2.9 NO

UK 1.9 0.1 1.1 NO

2011 Unemployment

Scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 5.7 6.1 4.2 NO

Belgium 10.3 11.1 7.2 NO

Cyprus 6.7 7.3 7.9 YES

NYSE:Finland 9.9 11.4 7.8 NO

NYSE:France 10 10.5 9.2 NO

Germany 9.3 9.7 5.9 NO

Greece 14.1 14.8 17.7 YES

Ireland 13.2 13.7 14.7 YES

Italy 8.7 9.3 8.4 NO

Luxembourg 7.7 7.7 4.8 NO

Malta 7.3 8.2 6.5 NO

Netherlands 6 7 4.4 NO

Portugal 11.9 12.8 12.9 YES

Slovakia 12.6 13.2 13.7 YES

Slovenia 8.5 9.1 8.2 NO

Spain 20.5 21.6 21.7 YES

Bulgaria 8 8.4 11.3 YES

Czech 8.5 9.6 6.7 NO

Republic

Denmark 5.6 6.3 7.6 YES

Estonia 14.5 14.8 12.3 NO

Hungary 11.9 13.2 10.9 NO

Latvia 18.2 18.8 16.2 NO

Lithuania 15.9 16.3 15.4 NO

Poland 11.5 12.2 9.7 NO

Romania 8.8 9.2 7.4 NO

Sweden 10.1 10.3 7.8 NO

UK 8 8.8 8 NO

2011 stress test

2011 GDP

scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 1.7 -0.7 2.8 NO

Belgium 1.8 0 1.8 NO

Cyprus 1.5 -0.6 0.4 NO

NYSE:Finland 2.9 -0.5 2.8 NO

NYSE:France 1.6 0.4 2 NO

Germany 2.2 -0.9 3.3 NO

Greece -3 -4 -7.1 YES

Ireland 0.9 -1.6 2.2 NO

Italy 1.1 0.1 0.4 NO

Luxembourg 2.8 0.2 1.9 NO

Malta 2 -3.1 1.6 NO

Netherlands 1.5 -0.7 0.9 NO

Portugal -1 -3 -1.3 NO

Slovakia 3 0.4 3 NO

Slovenia 1.9 0.8 0.7 YES

Spain 0.7 -1 0.1 NO

Bulgaria 2.6 1.1 1.8 NO

Czech 2.3 -0.3 1.8 NO

Republic

Denmark 1.9 0.4 1.1 NO

Estonia 4.4 1.8 9.6 NO

Hungary 2.8 1.9 1.6 YES

Latvia 3.3 1.6 5.3 NO

Lithuania 2.8 0.8 6 NO

Poland 3.9 3 4.5 NO

Romania 1.5 0 2.3 NO

Sweden 3.3 0.4 2.9 NO

UK 2.2 -0.7 1.1 NO

2011 Unemployment

scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 4.2 4.5 4.2 NO

Belgium 8.8 9 7.2 NO

Cyprus 6.6 6.9 7.9 YES

NYSE:Finland 7.8 8.3 7.8 NO

NYSE:France 9.5 9.6 9.2 NO

Germany 6.7 6.8 5.9 NO

Greece 15 15.2 17.7 YES

Ireland 13.4 14.9 14.7 NO

Italy 8.3 8.6 8.4 NO

Luxembourg 5.6 5.6 4.8 NO

Malta 6.6 7.4 6.5 NO

Netherlands 4.4 4.9 4.4 NO

Portugal 11.1 11.6 12.9 YES

Slovakia 14.2 14.4 13.7 NO

Slovenia 7.2 7.7 8.2 YES

Spain 20.2 21.3 21.7 YES

Bulgaria 9.1 9.2 11.3 YES

Czech 7 7.8 6.7 NO

Republic

Denmark 6.3 7.2 7.6 YES

Estonia 1.1 15.4 12.3 NO

Hungary 11 11.1 10.9 NO

Latvia 17.7 18.3 16.2 NO

Lithuania 16.9 17.3 15.4 NO

Poland 9.2 9.4 9.7 YES

Romania 7.4 7.5 7.4 NO

Sweden 8 8.8 7.8 NO

UK 7.9 9 8 NO

2012 GDP

scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 2.1 -0.6 0.9 NO

Belgium 2 -0.2 -0.1 NO

Cyprus 2.2 0.6 -2.4 YES

NYSE:Finland 2.3 0.6 -1 YES

NYSE:France 1.8 0.2 0 YES

Germany 2 0.6 0.7 NO

Greece 11 -1.2 -7 YES

Ireland 1.9 0.3 0.2 YES

Italy 1.4 -1 -2.4 YES

Luxembourg 3.2 0.9 -0.2 YES

Malta 2.2 0.5 0.6 NO

Netherlands 1.7 -0.8 -1.2 YES

Portugal 0.8 -2.6 -3.2 YES

Slovakia 3.9 1.3 1.8 NO

Slovenia 2.6 1 -2.5 YES

Spain 1.7 -1.1 -1.6 YES

Bulgaria 3.8 1.5 0.6 YES

Czech 3.1 1.5 -1 YES

Republic

Denmark 1.8 -0.2 -0.4 YES

Estonia 3.5 -0.9 3.9 NO

Hungary 3.2 1.2 -1.7 YES

Latvia 4 0.5 5.2 NO

Lithuania 3.2 -1.4 3.7 NO

Poland 4.2 2.6 2 YES

Romania 3.8 2.1 0.6 YES

Sweden 2.3 -1.2 0.9 NO

UK 2.5 0.9 0.3 YES

2012 Unemployment

scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 4 4.8 4.3 NO

Belgium 8.7 9.8 7.6 NO

Cyprus 5.9 7.1 11.9 YES

NYSE:Finland 7.2 8.1 7.7 NO

NYSE:France 9.2 9.8 9.8 NO

Germany 6.3 6.9 5.5 NO

Greece 15.2 16.3 24.3 YES

Ireland 12.7 15.8 14.7 NO

Italy 8.2 9.2 10.7 YES

Luxembourg 5.6 5.7 5.1 NO

Malta 6.5 8.8 6.4 NO

Netherlands 4.3 5.9 5.3 NO

Portugal 11.2 12.9 15.9 YES

Slovakia 13.4 14.3 14 NO

Slovenia 6.6 7.7 8.9 YES

Spain 19.2 22.4 25 YES

Bulgaria 8 8.9 12.3 YES

Czech 6.7 8.4 7 NO

Republic

Denmark 5.8 8.3 7.5 NO

Estonia 13.6 15 10 NO

Hungary 10.3 10.9 10.9 NO

Latvia 16.2 18.8 15 NO

Lithuania 15.1 17.2 13.4 NO

Poland 8.5 9.8 10.1 YES

Romania 7 7.4 7 NO

Sweden 7.5 10.1 8 NO

UK 7.8 10.6 7.9 NO

(Reporting by Laura Noonan; Editing by Mark Potter)

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