BEIJING (Reuters) - A deluge of China data over the coming week is likely to show a persistent cooldown in the world's second-largest economy, adding pressure on authorities to ramp up stimulus measures after unexpectedly cutting interest rates last month.
Growth in industrial output, exports and investment all slowed in November as export and domestic demand softened, while the property market -- seen as the biggest risk to the economy -- likely remained weak despite some signs of bottoming out.
Fixed-asset investment, an important driver of growth, likely grew at its slowest pace in nearly 13 years between January and November, rising 15.7 percent in that period from a year ago, a Reuters poll of 18 economists showed.
That would mark a deceleration from 15.9 percent in January-October and would be a level not seen since December 2001, as the sagging housing market and tighter credit conditions weigh on the broader economy.
"Although sales of real estate have improved, cash flow of real estate companies worsened... We can't see rise in real estate investment in the short term," China Merchants Securities said in a research note.
"Investment in the manufacturing sector may only improve in the first quarter of next year."
After saying for months that China does not need any big economic stimulus, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) surprised financial markets by lowering rates on Nov. 21 to shore up growth and help firms pay off mountains of debt.
Analysts see more moves in coming months if the economy continues to stumble, with many expecting both more rate cuts and reductions in banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRR).
The rate cut may spark some renewed interest in the home mortgages -- if China's increasingly risk-averse banks pass it along -- but analysts say high inventories will likely weigh on the housing market and related industries well into 2015.
Sources familiar with China's policy-making said leaders are prepared to lower rates again and loosen lending curbs on concerns that falling prices could cause a spike in bad loans, business failures and job losses.
Reflecting lacklustre domestic demand, China's import growth probably eased to 3.8 percent in November from a year earlier, after a 4.6 percent expansion in October.
Export growth also likely cooled to 8.1 percent, from 11.6 percent in October, though investors may place less stock in the shipment numbers as there have been doubts about the accuracy of the official readings in recent months.
Highlighting sluggish demand, producer deflation was expected to have persisted for the 33rd consecutive month in November, with the producer price index seen falling 2.4 percent, sapping corporate confidence and making companies more reluctant to invest.
Dragged by a shutdown of some high-polluting factories and plants in north China during a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in Beijing, factory output growth likely slowed to 7.5 percent, from October's 7.7 percent.
"Excluding the impact from the shutdown during APEC, internal growth of real economy remained sluggish," UBS said in a research note.
Credit conditions remained challenging. The M2 money supply is seen up 12.5 percent in November compared to a year ago, down from October's 12.6 percent.
China saw the biggest rise in bad loans since 2005 in the third quarter of this year, with non-performing loans standing at 72.5 billion yuan, highlighting the growing risks to the banking system as the economy slows.
SIGNS OF RESILIENCE
There may be some signs of resilience in the November readings, however.
The amount of new loans disbursed by banks was estimated to have risen to 630 billion yuan (£65.4 billion) last month from October's 548.3 billion yuan.
Growth in consumer inflation and retail sales also likely held steady.
Annual consumer inflation is seen at 1.6 percent in November, the same as in October and way below the annual government target of 3.5 percent, the poll showed.
Retail sales were seen growing 11.5 percent in November from a year earlier, flat with October.
China's economic growth slowed to 7.3 percent in the third quarter, the weakest pace since the global financial crisis.
(Reporting by Judy Hua and Koh Gui Qing; Editing by Kim Coghill)