Good Morning Everyone!
Today is midterm Election Day in the U.S. The S&P has historically outperformed the market in the 12-month period after a midterm election, with an average return of 16.3%. Let’s hope the trend is our friend!
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 11/7/22; % YTD
MARKET UPDATE Midterms
- Republicans are favored to take the House
- U.S. Senate is a dead heat
November 15
- Trump intentions on 2024 election
VIX lowest volatility since mid-September
- This will not last
- Midterms tonight
- CPI data on Thursday.
Crude 91 -1%
- A little weaker this morning on news that there’s a total of 7,000 covid cases in China, the most in 6 months
TikTok, Meta (NASDAQ: META)
- Brendan Carr, a Republican member of the Federal Communications Commission
- Reiterated his view that TikTok should be banned in the U.S.
Heading into the midterms, it’s interesting to note……
- 5-year total return of the S&P 500 Energy Sector and QQQ 0.10%↑ (Nasdaq 100) has now converged
- The outperformance of the Energy sector started exactly on the date Biden was elected in 2020 (green line)
- Recall, one of Biden’s first moves was to cancel the Keystone XL Pipeline
Used Cars, Manheim Index
- October at 200
- Down 2.2% month-over-month
- Pickup trucks down 1.3% month-over-month
-
This is interesting:
- Besides temporary shocks, 2008 and 2020, there has been no sustainable downturn in used car pricing in 20 years
Earnings
- Lyft (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:LYFT) -17%, ridership less than pre-pandemic
- TripAdvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP) -24%, soft Q4 guide
- Take-Two (NASDAQ:TTWO) Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) -17%, weaker mobile results
- Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ATVI)
- Welltower (NYSE: WELL)
- Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG)
- International Flavors (NYSE: IFF)
- Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) - volume in-line, costs higher, Q4 guide below street
- Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG)
- DuPont (NYSE: NYSE:DD) +3%, EPS 0.82>street 0.79, guide up modestly, buyback announced
Tonight
- Disney (NYSE: DIS) 7% implied move
CRYPTO UPDATE Crypto broadly down this morning
- Demand for protective puts spiking
- Ripple effects of FTX/Alameda/Binance drama
- Sam Bankman-Fried: “FTX is fine”
1) A competitor is trying to go after us with false rumors.SBF @SBF_FTXFTX is fine. Assets are fine.
Details:
— SBF (@SBF_FTX) November 7, 2022
1) A competitor is trying to go after us with false rumors. FTX is fine. Assets are fine. Details:
12:38 PM ∙ Nov 7, 2022
11,666Likes2,062Retweets
Bitcoin vs. the field
- Chart shows relative strength of altcoins vs. Bitcoin over past 10 days
- Several outperforming led by Dogecoin
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