Good Morning Everyone!
Remember, as bad as things may seem, history is on our side. The average midterm year – like this one – is typically down as of October 5. It finishes, however, up 6% on average.
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 8/30/22; % YTD
MARKET UPDATE Month-to-date
- S&P 500 -3.5%
- NASDQ -4.1% down 6% since Jackson Hole
- TSX -0.9%
Post Jackson Hole, we are starting to get fresh 52-week lows - As of yesterday’s close:
- Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD)
- Comcast (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:CMCSA)
- Intel (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:INTC)
- 3M (NYSE: NYSE:MMM)
- Verizon (NYSE: NYSE:VZ)
- Newmont (NYSE: NEM)
What’s priced in for the September 21 FOMC meeting?
- Today Federal Funds Target (NYSE:TGT) Rate 2.25%-2.5%
- 70% chance 75 basis points hike on September 21
- 30% chance 50 basis point hike on September 21
- 75- point hike Takes Fed Funds Target Rate to 3-3.25%
- 50-point hike Takes Fed Funds Taret Rate to 2.75%-3%
Bigger picture of what is priced in for the Fed Funds Rate
- By year end 3.5%-3.75%
- By early 2023 3.75%-4%
- 2nd half 2023 2 rate cuts to 3.25%-3.5%
All of these expectations will change as we get fresh new data
2-year Treasury
Crude 89.50 -2%
- Oil is headed for a 3rd monthly drop
- The longest losing run in more than 2 years
3-day halt of the Nord Stream pipeline started Wednesday
- Germany & France said they are prepared for further supply disruptions thanks to gas-storage refills
Toyota (NYSE: TM) / World’s biggest automaker
- Will invest $5.6 billion to boost electric car battery production
- Battery production expected to begin in 2024
SNAP (NYSE: SNAP) -8%
- Netflix (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NFLX) is hiring 2 top execs from SNAP to work on ad-supported service
- SNAP plans to lay off 20% of its employees
Earnings
- CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) flat
- HP (NYSE: HPQ) -7%, miss and guides lower, demand for PCs and Print weak
- Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPE) +1%
- Chewy (NYSE: CHWY) -10%, cutting guidance
CRYPTO UPDATE Seven Seven Six to launch $177 million crypto fund
- VC firm led by Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian
- Kryptós will debut October
- “It’s on sale. Everything is on sale.” - founding partner Katelin Holloway
Animoca raises another $100 million
- Asian blockchain gaming giant
- Now valued at $6 billion
- Over 340 portfolio companies (incl The Sandbox and Decentraland)
Crypto Fear & Greed
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