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Bitcoin ETF: BBG analysts boost approval odds from 50% to 65%

Published 03/08/2023, 08:03
Updated 03/08/2023, 08:10
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Investing.com - Analysts at Bloomberg ETF said on Wednesday they had revised their assessment of the chances of approval for a US Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF upwards from 50% to 65%, due to "recent events and new information".

Analysts believe it is most likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will simultaneously approve all recent applications for the product after Grayscale beat the agency in federal court.

BBG analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balcunas highlighted several factors, including SEC chairman Gary Gensler's "downplaying" of his role at the agency, and the regulator's "tacit approval" of Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) as a Bitcoin exchange.

Indeed, remember that Coinbase was selected by several ETF issuers, including BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Fidelity, to form a surveillance-sharing agreement to meet the SEC's requirements for detecting Bitcoin market manipulation.

"Pressure from BlackRock and possibly Democrats could make ETF rejection politically untenable for Mr Gensler," they added.

However, Bloomberg cited Grayscale - the owner of the world's largest Bitcoin fund - as the main source of optimism.

"The keystone to this ongoing thesis is a Grayscale victory over the SEC in federal court," Seyffart wrote on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) on Wednesday. "Which could set the stage for a wave of SEC approvals in Q4? It all depends on Gensler's willingness to fight here."

As for the next dates to mark with a red cross in this matter, it will be recalled that the SEC must provide an answer for the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) on 13 August, although the SEC still has several appeals that would allow this date to be shifted to January 2024.

In the meantime, Grayscale hopes to receive a decision in its case against the SEC before autumn 2023.

(Translated from French using DeepL)

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