Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ) International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ), a global leader in the snack food and beverage industry, finds itself navigating a complex market landscape as it approaches the end of 2024. The company, known for its iconic brands in the biscuit, chocolate, and confectionery segments, has demonstrated resilience in the face of various challenges but also faces significant headwinds that could impact its performance in the coming quarters.
Recent Performance and Market Challenges
Mondelez has shown a mixed performance in recent quarters, with management expressing optimism about the latter half of 2024 despite facing headwinds earlier in the year. The company anticipates reaching the high end of its projected 3-5% year-over-year organic sales growth for 2024, a target that remains in place despite softer than expected trends in the first half of the year and disruptions in Europe.
Analysts note that while Mondelez outperformed expectations in the second quarter of 2024, the company maintained its earnings per share (EPS) guidance for the year. This decision reflects significant challenges, particularly the rising costs of key inputs such as cocoa, which are expected to exert pressure on margins in the coming months.
Regional Market Analysis
North America
The North American market, particularly the United States, presents a mixed picture for Mondelez. The company's US biscuit portfolio has been under pressure, with challenges expected to persist through 2024. However, there are signs of potential improvement, with the company anticipating volume growth in this segment. Mondelez has introduced new value offerings in the US market, which may help attract customers and drive sales in a competitive environment.
Europe
In Europe, Mondelez has recently completed pricing actions, a move that could potentially lead to better margins or sales. However, analysts caution that volume weakness is likely to continue in this region. The European market has experienced disruptions, and the impact of pricing negotiations remains a concern for the company's performance in this key region.
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets present significant growth opportunities for Mondelez, with the company eyeing expansion in these areas. However, the outlook is not uniformly positive across all emerging markets. There are indications of potential softness in Latin American markets, particularly in Mexico. Despite these pockets of weakness, analysts generally view the emerging market segment as a key driver of future growth for Mondelez.
Cost Pressures and Margin Concerns
One of the most significant challenges facing Mondelez is the sharp increase in cocoa prices. The cocoa market has seen stocks-to-grind ratios reach a 40-year low, suggesting sustained higher prices for this crucial input. The loss of cocoa trees due to disease and mining activities has contributed to this supply constraint.
Analysts have adopted a more conservative stance on cocoa costs, leading to downward revisions in EPS estimates for both 2024 and 2025. These elevated cocoa prices are expected to exert significant pressure on Mondelez's EBIT margins, particularly in the latter half of 2024 and throughout 2025.
Growth Strategies and Outlook
Despite the challenges, Mondelez continues to pursue strategies aimed at driving growth and maintaining its market position. The company's focus on emerging markets expansion, introduction of new value offerings in developed markets, and efforts to improve volumes in key segments like US biscuits are seen as positive steps.
Analysts maintain a generally positive outlook on Mondelez's long-term prospects, with several firms rating the stock as "Outperform" or "Overweight." However, there is a recognition that the company faces near-term headwinds that could impact its performance in the coming quarters.
The completion of pricing actions in Europe and the potential for growth in key emerging markets are seen as opportunities for Mondelez to offset some of the challenges it faces. However, the company will need to navigate carefully through the issues of rising input costs and potential volume weakness in certain markets.
Bear Case
How might persistent cocoa cost pressures impact Mondelez's profitability?
The sharp increase in cocoa prices presents a significant challenge to Mondelez's profitability. With stocks-to-grind ratios at a 40-year low and ongoing issues affecting cocoa tree cultivation, the elevated costs are likely to persist. This situation could lead to sustained pressure on Mondelez's EBIT margins, particularly in the chocolate and confectionery segments which rely heavily on cocoa as a key ingredient.
Analysts have already revised their EPS estimates downward for both 2024 and 2025, reflecting the anticipated impact of these higher costs. If Mondelez is unable to fully offset these increased expenses through pricing actions or cost-saving measures, it could lead to a prolonged period of margin compression, potentially affecting the company's ability to meet investor expectations and maintain its current growth trajectory.
What challenges does Mondelez face in its developed markets?
Mondelez is grappling with several challenges in its developed markets, particularly in North America and Europe. In the United States, the company's biscuit portfolio has been under pressure, with ongoing challenges expected to persist through 2024. This weakness in a key product category in a major market could hamper overall growth and market share.
In Europe, while Mondelez has completed pricing actions, volume weakness is anticipated to continue. The impact of these pricing negotiations on consumer demand remains a concern, as higher prices could potentially lead to reduced consumption or shifts to lower-priced alternatives.
Furthermore, analysts note unstable consumer confidence in developed markets as a potential threat to sales. Economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures could lead consumers to be more cautious in their spending habits, potentially affecting demand for Mondelez's products, which are often considered discretionary items.
Bull Case
How could Mondelez's expansion in emerging markets drive growth?
Mondelez's focus on emerging markets presents a significant opportunity for growth. These markets often have rapidly growing middle classes with increasing disposable incomes, creating a favorable environment for the company's snack and confectionery products.
By expanding its presence in these regions, Mondelez can tap into new consumer bases and potentially offset challenges faced in more mature markets. The company's global brand recognition and diverse product portfolio position it well to capture market share in emerging economies.
Additionally, as these markets develop, there may be opportunities for Mondelez to introduce premium products, potentially leading to higher margins. Successful expansion in emerging markets could provide a substantial boost to the company's overall revenue and profitability, supporting long-term growth prospects.
What potential benefits could arise from completed EU pricing actions?
The completion of pricing actions in Europe could yield several benefits for Mondelez. Firstly, these price adjustments may help the company offset rising input costs, particularly the increased expenses related to cocoa. By aligning product prices with current cost structures, Mondelez can work to protect its margins in the face of inflationary pressures.
Secondly, the pricing actions could potentially lead to improved revenue performance if volume declines are less severe than anticipated. If consumers accept the new pricing levels, Mondelez may be able to maintain or even grow its market share while benefiting from higher per-unit revenues.
Lastly, the completion of these pricing negotiations removes a significant element of uncertainty from Mondelez's European operations. With pricing strategies now set, the company can focus on other aspects of its business, such as marketing initiatives or product innovations, to drive growth in this key region.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths:
- Global presence with strong brand recognition
- Diverse product portfolio across snack and confectionery categories
- Successful completion of pricing actions in Europe
Weaknesses:
- Pressure on US biscuit portfolio
- Volume weakness in European markets
- Vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations, particularly cocoa
Opportunities:
- Expansion potential in emerging markets
- Introduction of new value offerings in developed markets
- Possible volume improvements in US biscuit segment
Threats:
- Rising cocoa costs impacting margins
- Unstable consumer confidence in developed markets
- Potential softness in Latin American markets, particularly Mexico
Analysts Targets
- RBC Capital Markets (October 28th, 2024): Outperform, $80.00
- Piper Sandler (October 23rd, 2024): Overweight, $74.00
- Barclays (LON:BARC) (August 1st, 2024): Overweight, $76.00
- RBC Capital Markets (July 26th, 2024): Outperform, $80.00
This analysis is based on information available up to October 28, 2024.
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