On Friday, Jefferies reiterated its Hold rating on Instacart (NASDAQ:CART) with a steady price target of $42.00. The firm's analysis suggests that Instacart's third quarter may not significantly impact the stock, as clarity on key growth factors is not expected. The focus remains on Instacart's ability to sustain high single-digit or higher Gross Transaction Value (GTV) growth and its potential to increase advertising penetration.
Despite a conservative estimate for fixed operational expenditures (OPEX), Instacart is anticipated to slightly surpass GTV expectations and achieve approximately 5% EBITDA upside. The company has consistently exceeded consensus and the higher end of its own GTV and EBITDA guidance in the first three quarters since going public.
Instacart's recent cost-saving measures, including a reduction-in-force (RIF) of 250 people announced in the first quarter of 2024, are expected to contribute to financial outcomes. However, achieving the upper range of Instacart's third-quarter EBITDA guidance, which is set between $205 million and $215 million, may necessitate an increase in fixed OPEX sequentially.
For the third quarter, Jefferies forecasts Instacart's GTV at $8.2 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of around 10%, and an EBITDA of $213 million. This EBITDA prediction implies that the incremental margin could contract by approximately 1500 basis points year-over-year to 6.9%, aligning the forecast closely with consensus expectations.
In other recent news, Instacart has been the subject of several significant developments. The company reported a Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of $8.2 billion and an EBITDA of $208 million. Additionally, it repurchased $117 million worth of its shares from D1 Iconoclast Holdings LP. In a strategic move, Instacart partnered with Family Dollar, allowing customers to use the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) for online orders.
Furthermore, Instacart's partnership with Foodsmart through their joint Foodcare program, integrating telenutrition services with grocery delivery, has shown improved health outcomes for individuals with obesity and diabetes.
In the realm of analyst coverage, Jefferies initiated a Hold rating on Instacart, while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reduced the company's price target from $45.00 to $41.00. Raymond James and Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with a Market Perform rating and an Overweight rating respectively.
Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating on Instacart and raised the price target to $50.00, following the company's expansion of its retail media advertising strategy, which is expected to reaccelerate advertising growth.
InvestingPro Insights
Instacart's financial metrics and market performance offer additional context to Jefferies' analysis. According to InvestingPro data, the company's market capitalization stands at $11.26 billion, with a revenue of $3.21 billion over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 14.94% increase in the most recent quarter.
Two key InvestingPro Tips are particularly relevant to the article's discussion on Instacart's financial performance. First, the company boasts impressive gross profit margins, which aligns with Jefferies' focus on Instacart's ability to sustain growth and increase advertising penetration. Second, analysts predict that the company will be profitable this year, which could be a positive sign for investors despite the current negative P/E ratio of -7.89.
Instacart's stock has shown remarkable performance, with a 74.01% price total return over the past year and an 86.54% return year-to-date. This strong market performance, coupled with the fact that the stock is trading near its 52-week high (99.16% of the high), suggests investor confidence in the company's prospects.
For readers interested in a deeper dive into Instacart's financials and market position, InvestingPro offers 13 additional tips, providing a comprehensive view of the company's strengths and potential challenges.
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