On Monday, BofA Securities maintained a Buy rating for BioCryst (NASDAQ:BCRX) Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX) with a steady price target of $11.00. The firm's analysis followed BioCryst's third-quarter earnings report, which showed Orladeyo sales reaching $116.3 million, surpassing both BofA's projection of $113.7 million and the consensus estimate of $112.6 million.
The company reported a year-over-year increase in U.S. patient start forms by 14.2% and an improvement in the paid drug rate to 74.8%, up from 74.4% in the previous quarter. Additionally, BioCryst added 67 new U.S. prescribers for Orladeyo in the third quarter, marking the largest increase in the past two years.
BioCryst has refined its full-year 2024 sales forecast for Orladeyo to a range of $430-435 million, closely aligning with BofA's estimate of $432.9 million and approaching the upper end of the previously stated range of $420-435 million. These third-quarter results have bolstered confidence in BofA's peak sales estimate of $716 million for Orladeyo by 2029. While BioCryst aims for $800 million in peak U.S. sales by 2029, BofA remains cautious, citing the need for further validation given the competitive landscape.
Management has downplayed concerns over the potential market entry of competitor IONS' donidalorsen, emphasizing Orladeyo's unique oral dosing profile. BofA agrees, suggesting that BioCryst could benefit as physicians and patients reassess treatment options post-donidalorsen's launch.
Furthermore, BioCryst anticipates recognizing approximately $13 million in revenue from recent Rapivab contracting in 2024, contributing to a total revenue guidance of $443-448 million for the year. In light of these developments, BofA views the third-quarter report positively and considers the current dip in BioCryst's stock price as an opportune moment for investors to engage with the long-term narrative of the company.
In other recent news, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has been making significant strides in various areas. The company released a study showing that its oral treatment for hereditary angioedema (HAE), ORLADEYO, led to notable reductions in healthcare resource utilization among U.S. patients. This includes a decrease in hospitalizations, emergency room visits, and the use of on-demand therapies.
BioCryst has also secured a $69 million contract from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for its influenza treatment, RAPIVAB. The company initiated a Phase 1 clinical trial for BCX17725, aimed at treating Netherton syndrome, a rare genetic disorder. However, the BCX10013 program was discontinued due to insufficient drug activity.
The company has also reported strong demand for ORLADEYO, leading to an upgraded revenue forecast for the year, now expected to fall between $420 million and $435 million. In a recent development, BioCryst finalized a deal with the pan-Canadian Pharmaceutical Alliance to incorporate ORLADEYO into public formularies, expanding patient access across Canada.
InvestingPro Insights
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' (NASDAQ:BCRX) recent performance aligns with several key insights from InvestingPro. The company's strong Q3 results, particularly the impressive Orladeyo sales, are reflected in its robust revenue growth. InvestingPro data shows a 24.65% revenue growth over the last twelve months, with an even more impressive 32.54% quarterly revenue growth as of Q2 2024.
Despite the positive sales trajectory, InvestingPro Tips indicate that BioCryst is not expected to be profitable this year, which is consistent with the company's current focus on growth and market expansion for Orladeyo. This is further supported by the negative P/E ratio of -12.31 over the last twelve months.
Interestingly, InvestingPro Tips highlight that BioCryst has seen a strong return over the last three months and a large price uptick over the last six months. This aligns with the positive market reception to the company's recent performance and BofA's maintained Buy rating. The stock's 20.09% price return over the last three months and an impressive 89.44% return over the last six months underscore this trend.
For investors considering BioCryst's long-term potential, as suggested by BofA, it's worth noting that InvestingPro lists 5 additional tips that could provide further insights into the company's prospects. These additional tips, available with an InvestingPro+ subscription, could offer valuable context for evaluating BioCryst's future in the competitive pharmaceutical landscape.
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