Proactive Investors - Oil producers cartel OPEC+ sees global energy demand increasing 24% in the next two and a half decades as a slight drop in power needs of developed countries is offset by a huge swell in usage from India and other non-OECD countries.
Oil demand is predicted to grow 9% in that period, reaching roughly 120.1 million barrels a day by 2050, up from around 110 million barrels a day last year.
In the 2024 edition of its World Oil Outlook (WOO) publication, the syndicate said its analysis was built on recent energy and economic-related developments, particularly around energy security and affordability, as well as how the balance the need to reduce emissions.
Global energy demand is set to increase from 301 million barrels of oil equivalent a day (boe/d) in 2023 to 374 mboe/d in 2050, driven by increased need from developing regions of around 73.5 mboe/d, only partly offset by what it predicts will only be a "slight" drop from more developed countries.
Around 30% of this growth comes from India alone.
OPEC predicts the share of the non-OECD in global primary energy demand increases to 71.5% in 2050, up from below 65% in 2023.
The report predicts only coal demand will fall (down 29 mboe/d), with all other sources rising, mainly from wind, solar and other renewables, followed by natural gas.
Renewables demand is seen expanding 43 mboe/d, from 9.6 mboe/d in 2023 to 52.4 mboe/d in 2050, while natural gas is forecast to rise by 20.5 mboe/d through 2050 and oil demand is expected to grow by 16.7 mboe/d.
Nuclear energy (9.6 mboe/d), biomass (8.2 mboe/d) and hydro power (4 mboe/d) are also seen growing. Due to stringent energy policies in most regions, coal demand is forecast to decline by almost 29 mboe/d between 2023 and 2050.
The share of oil and gas in the energy mix stays above 53% through 2050, with oil retaining the largest share at above 29%
"Big shifts in the energy mix are seen throughout the outlook period, but oil and gas are set to remain crucial for energy supply in the period to 2050," the WOO said. "Their combined share in the energy mix is expected to stay above 53% throughout the outlook period. Oil retains the largest share at 29.3% in 2050, with gas at 24%."