(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s oil output is set to fall roughly 20% by the start of next year as a European Union import ban comes into force, according to the International Energy Agency.
Gradual monthly declines will start as soon as this month as Russia cuts back refining, and will quicken as the embargo takes effect, the IEA said in a market report. The agency expects to see close to 2 million barrels a day shut in by the start of 2023, despite a healthy recovery in production in recent months.
The EU is set to halt most crude purchases from Russia from Dec. 5 in a bid to cut off revenue streams that the Kremlin uses to finance its war in Ukraine. From Feb. 5, an EU ban on Russian oil-product shipments takes effect.
Russia’s oil output has risen in the past three months, reaching almost 10.8 million barrels a day in July amid higher domestic crude-processing and robust exports as the country redirects crude flows to Asia.
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