Investing.com - Gold prices inched higher on Monday ahead of expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this week.
Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose 65 cents, or 0.1%, to $1,419.95 a troy ounce by 8:55 AM ET (12:55 GMT).
The Fed is widely expected to move forward with a 25 basis point reduction to interest rates, its first cut in a decade, when it announces its decision on Wednesday.
Markets had sent odds soaring for a full 50 basis point cut in the middle of July, but a string of better-than-expected data, including last Friday’s release of second-quarter GDP, has dampened those hopes. Fed funds futures put the probability at just above 20%.
Markets currently expect a follow-through quarter-point reduction to occur in September, with more than a 50% chance of a third cut by the end of the year.
“More important than what happens on Wednesday is what the market expects of the Fed in follow-through action in September and beyond,” Investing.com senior commodity analyst Barani Krishnan said. “Here’s where the real disappointment could be for gold longs, as the Fed might not be as dovish as many expect.”
The Fed’s decision will likely overshadow other policy announcements this week by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England which are both expected to stay on hold.
The European Central Bank’s decision to hold last week gives the BoJ some breathing room amid a shift to a more dovish stance by central banks worldwide.
Without making a move, the BoJ may reinforce its commitment to keep interest rates at record lows, while the BoE may offer its assessment of the British economy's current downturn, and how it might respond in the event of a hard Brexit.
Gold bulls are also keeping an eye on high level trade talks between the U.S. and China which restart on Tuesday in Shanghai after they broke down last May.
Expectations are low for any significant progress to be made and a continuation of the long drawn out process could benefit safe-haven demand for gold.
Trade disputes have largely been attributed to slow global growth. Japan cut its growth forecast for this year due to weak exports, fruit of the Sino-U.S. trade conflict.
Japan's warning comes after the slowdown in the American economy, concerns expressed by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that the prospects for the euro zone were getting “worse and worse” and the fact that the International Monetary Fund cut its own projection for global growth this year
In other metals trading, silver futures gained 0.1% to $16.413 a troy ounce by 8:56 AM ET (12:56 GMT).
Palladium futures dropped 0.2% to $1,527.40 an ounce, while sister metal platinum gained 0.9% to $875.40.
In base metals, copper traded up 0.4% to $2.696 a pound.