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Gold at 3-month highs on European political risks, Trump uncertainty

Published 09/02/2017, 08:11
Updated 09/02/2017, 08:16
European political risks, Trump uncertainty support gold
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Investing.com - Gold prices rose modestly in European morning trade on Thursday, holding near the prior session's three-month high amid growing concerns over political risks in Europe and economic uncertainty in the U.S.

Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange inched up $2.10, or about 0.2%, to $1,241.60 a troy ounce by 3:10AM ET (08:10GMT), after rising $3.40, or 0.3%, a day earlier, its fifth straight session of gains.

Prices of the yellow metal rallied to $1,246.60 on Wednesday, the highest since November 11.

Uncertainty about European politics has boosted gold in recent sessions. Polls this week have shown German Chancellor Angela Merkel falling behind a candidate from the country's Social Democrats in this year's elections scheduled to take place in September.

Polls have also suggested France's Marine Le Pen, who has vowed to pull France out of the euro zone, is gaining ground.

Adding to the mood of uncertainty, elections will also be held in the Netherlands in March and possibly Italy.

Traders also eyed political risk elements in the U.S., with President Donald Trump's administration on the back foot over its immigration and other policies.

Headlines from Washington will continue to dictate market sentiment as traders focus on Trump for further details on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation as well as trade policies.

Investors often buy gold as a refuge against economic and political uncertainty.

Gains were limited due to a stronger U.S. dollar, as dollar-priced commodities become more expensive to investors holding other currencies when the greenback gains.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.2% at 100.34 in early trade, keeping distance from last week's two-month low of 99.19.

Market participants continued to speculate over the timing of the next U.S. rate increase. Fed fund futures priced in a less than 10% chance of a hike in March, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. However, odds of a June increase was seen at around 60%.

The Fed, which raised rates in December, has forecast three rate increases this year. However, traders remained unconvinced, with markets continuing to price in just two rate hikes during the course of this year.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will present the U.S. central bank's semiannual report on monetary policy and the economy in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on February 14.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery tacked on 3.7 cents, or 0.2%, to $17.74 a troy ounce.

Meanwhile, platinum dipped 0.1% to $1,018.35, while palladium rose around 0.4% to $772.78 an ounce.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures dipped 0.4 cents, or about 0.2%, to $2.663 a pound, as workers at the Escondida copper mine in Chile, the largest in the world, were set to strike.

The workers union has warned that the strike could be lengthy, potentially affecting global supplies.

Chile is the world’s biggest producer of the red metal, providing almost a third of the world's supply.

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