By Gayatri Suroyo
JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia's central bank, which surprised markets with a rate cut in February, is expected to hold rates steady on Tuesday to aid the rupiah, trading at its lowest level since August 1998.
This year, the rupiah has shed more than 6.3 percent against the dollar, making it emerging Asia's worst performing currency. Early on Monday, it reached 13,243 to the dollar.
Some analysts feel Bank Indonesia (BI) is content to let the rupiah depreciate, which should aid Indonesian exporters. On Monday, Indonesia reported February exports were 16 percent below a year earlier.
In a Reuters poll, 13 out of 14 economists said they expect the benchmark rate
In February, BI joined other Asian central banks easing policy with a 25 basis points cut. The central bank said it took the decision because it saw inflation falling to below 4 percent near the end of 2015.
The cut reversed a hike made in November right after the government increased domestic fuel prices. Inflation peaked at 8.36 percent in December, then eased due to falling global oil prices, which let the government scrap most fuel subsidies.
In February, annual inflation was 6.29 percent in February.
A CLOSE CALL?
"Assuming that rupiah stability remains an important policy goal, February's rate cut should be viewed as a take back of last November's hike and not the start of an aggressive easing," said Gundy Cahyadi, an economist with DBS in Singapore who expects BI to hold rates for the year.
Gareth Leather of Capital Economics said Tuesday's meeting will be a "close call" but predicts another 25 basis point cut.
"The fact foreign exchange reserves have been increasing recently suggests policymakers are not too concerned by the weakness of the rupiah," he said.
Most analysts in the Reuters poll expect BI to cut later this year, despite possible pressure when the Federal Reserve starts raising U.S. rates.
Foreign exchange reserves have risen since November, reaching $115.5 billion in February. Traders say BI has been intervening in the foreign exchange market, suggesting that it has only been smoothening out the rupiah's volatility and not defending the currency.
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said on March 11 that the central bank's stance remains tight and monetary policy will not be eased if inflation and the current account deficit are not going in a good direction.
(Polling by Nilufar Rizki; Editing by Richard Borsuk) OLGBBUS Reuters UK Online Report Business News 20150316T050928+0000