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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: June 15 - 19

Published 14/06/2015, 14:31
© Reuters.  Crude falls on Friday, paring weekly gains
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Investing.com - Oil prices fell sharply on Friday as concerns about oversupply continued to weigh, but still ended the week higher, boosted by a weaker dollar.

Crude for July delivery settled down 1.33% at $59.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, the contract rose 1.4%, the biggest weekly gain since April.

Brent crude for July delivery, the global benchmark, was down 1.9%, to settle at $63.87 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. The contract rose 0.88% on the week.

Oil prices fell amid concerns that higher output by Saudi Arabia would feed into a global supply glut. Saudi Arabia said Wednesday it had raised output over the past three months in response to stronger global demand.

Concerns on supply overshadowed a report showing another fall in the latest U.S. oil drilling rig count. Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said Friday that there were seven fewer oil rigs working in the U.S. last week, pointing to further cutbacks in drilling and production.

Global oil production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil production and after OPEC's decision last year not to cut production.

Earlier this month OPEC decided to maintain its output quotas at 30 million barrels per day.

In its monthly report on Thursday the International Energy Agency said it expected world oil demand to increase faster than it previously forecast this year, buoyed by lower prices and economic growth.

The IEA said global demand for oil would increase by 1.4 million barrels a day this year, 300,000 barrels a day more than it previously forecast, to a daily average of 94 million barrels this year.

Global demand in 2014 was about 92.6 million barrels a day, the agency said.

Meanwhile, the dollar ended the week lower against the other major currencies, as uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve could start to raise interest rates weighed.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 94.98 late Friday, flat for the day. The index ended the week down 1.42%, the second straight weekly decline.

A weak greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities such as oil cheaper for holders of other currencies.

In the week ahead, investors will also be looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate statement for a clear signal on when it could start to raise interest rates.

Greece’s debt talks will also remain in focus with time running out to reach cash-for reforms deal before the end of the month.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 15

Switzerland is to release data on producer prices and retail sales.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to testify before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels.

Canada is to publish a report on manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to publish data on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the New York region.

Tuesday, June 16

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.

The U.K. is to release data on consumer price inflation.

In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.

The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on oil supplies.

Wednesday, June 17

New Zealand is to publish data on the current account.

Japan is to produce a report on the trade balance.

The U.K. is to publish its latest employment report. In addition, the Bank of England is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Canada is to report on wholesale sales.

The Energy Information Administration is to release its weekly report on crude oil inventories.

Later Wednesday, the Fed is to announce its monetary policy decision and hold a press conference, which will be closely watched for fresh indications on the possible timing of rate hikes.

Thursday, June 18

New Zealand is to release data on gross domestic product.

Switzerland is to publish data on the trade balance.

The Swiss National Bank is to announce its Libor rate and publish its monetary policy assessment. The rate announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

The U.K. is to release data on retail sales.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to release a string of data, including reports on consumer prices, initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, June 19

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The U.K. is to release a report on public sector borrowing.

Canada is to round up the week with data on consumer inflation and retail sales.

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