On Wednesday, Barclays (LON:BARC) adjusted its stance on Valaris plc (NYSE:VAL), downgrading the stock from Overweight to Equal Weight and reducing the price target to $49 from the previous $59. The downgrade comes as Valaris faces challenges with its fleet of offshore drilling rigs, including issues with contracts and competitive pricing.
According to InvestingPro data, Valaris shares have declined over 40% in the past six months, though analysis suggests the stock may be undervalued at current levels. The company maintains a "GOOD" overall financial health score, supported by strong profitability metrics.
Valaris, which emerged from bankruptcy in 2021, currently has five floaters that are either without a contract or nearing the end of their existing contracts within the next 12 months. The company also decided to warm-stack one of its premium 7G drillships, DS-10. This decision reflects the ongoing debate in the industry about the availability and utilization of drilling rigs, often referred to as "white space."
Despite these challenges, InvestingPro data shows the company achieved impressive revenue growth of over 30% in the last twelve months, with a healthy gross profit margin of nearly 23%.
The analyst from Barclays highlighted that Valaris has historically priced its assets below market rates to maintain employment for its rigs. This pricing strategy is likely to continue as the company seeks to secure work for its rigs amidst a competitive environment. Furthermore, Valaris's fleet includes 20 benign-weather jackups, with 8 operating in Saudi Arabia. These could face dayrate pressures following the suspension of approximately 30 jackups by Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) this year, impacting the overall industry.
The revised price target of $49 is based on more conservative contracting assumptions for the years 2025 and 2026. The valuation also incorporates a rig-by-rig discounted cash flow (DCF) model, which assumes mid-cycle dayrates of $450,000 per day for uncontracted rigs in the future, a figure that remains unchanged despite the rating downgrade. InvestingPro analysis reveals the stock trades at an attractive P/E ratio of 2.9x, with analyst targets ranging from $40 to $90 per share.
For deeper insights into Valaris's valuation and financial health, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which includes detailed analysis and actionable intelligence available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.
In other recent news, Valaris PLC reported a robust financial performance in Q3 2024, generating $111 million in free cash flow and an adjusted EBITDA of $150 million. The company also announced the repurchase of $100 million of shares and secured new contracts totaling approximately $257 million. These developments demonstrate the company's strong market presence and potential for future growth.
However, Citi downgraded Valaris's rating from Buy to Neutral, adjusting the price target to $47.00 from the previous $58.00 due to lowered expectations for the company's future earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). This decision reflects concerns over recent contract suspensions in Saudi Arabia, which have impacted the valuation of Valaris's ARO joint venture.
The firm also highlighted potential downside risks to crude prices in the upcoming months, leading to a more cautious stance on Valaris. These are among the recent developments affecting the company.
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