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Evercore highlights strong NGS ARR growth for Palo Alto Networks, reiterates Outperform rating

EditorAhmed Abdulazez Abdulkadir
Published 21/11/2024, 11:50
© Kfir Sivan, Palo Alto Networks PR
PANW
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On Thursday, Evercore ISI maintained its positive stance on Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), reiterating an Outperform rating with a price target of $455.00. The cybersecurity firm reported a strong quarter, meeting key performance indicators, although it faced some challenges with billings and Next-Generation Security (NGS) Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR).

Palo Alto Networks showcased robust quarterly results, aligning with the expectations for revenue, NGS, and Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO). The company's management is optimistic about the potential for product growth, especially in the second half of the fiscal year, which is projected to have comparatively easier comparisons.

Despite the positive outlook, the company's billing growth declined by 13% year-over-year, primarily due to fewer customer financing deals through the Palo Alto Networks Financing (PAN-FS) program. This shift led to a headwind in billings, as PAN-FS deals are recognized upfront. However, management emphasized that this change does not affect the company's Free Cash Flow (FCF), reiterating their FCF margin target of 37.5% for fiscal year 2025.

The NGS ARR grew by 40% year-over-year, with organic growth at 37.5%, surpassing expectations. The contribution from the IBM (NYSE:IBM) QRadar acquisition was approximately $74 million in the first quarter and is expected to halve by the fourth quarter. Palo Alto Networks successfully converted about one-third of QRadar customers to its platform.

Management attributed a seasonal decline in net new platform additions to the fiscal year-end, noting that the second half usually sees a surge in new deals. Despite the debates surrounding billing and NGS ARR, the quarter's data points suggest strong momentum behind Palo Alto Networks' platform strategy.

Notably, the company's Cortex (XSIAM) and Prisma Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) offerings are gaining traction. Remarkably, 40% of the quarter's wins involved new customers, indicating successful greenfield opportunities and competitive market displacements. Palo Alto Networks is now a contender in most, if not all, enterprise-level SASE Requests for Proposals (RFPs).

In other recent news, Palo Alto Networks has kicked off fiscal year 2025 on a high note, reporting a 14% rise in total revenue to $2.14 billion. The company's next-generation security annual recurring revenue (NGS ARR) has seen a substantial 40% increase, surpassing the $4.5 billion mark. This growth was accompanied by a 13% increase in earnings per share (EPS) and an expansion in operating margins.

Palo Alto Networks also expanded its portfolio with over 70 new platformizations in Q1, bringing the total to approximately 1,100. The company's Network (LON:NETW) Security and Cloud Security segments demonstrated significant growth, with the newly launched Prisma Access Browser acquiring over 115 new customers.

The company has raised its full-year guidance for NGS ARR, revenue, and EPS, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory. In an effort to improve accessibility for employees and investors, Palo Alto Networks announced a 2-for-1 stock split. The company's strategic acquisition of IBM's QRadar is expected to position it among the top three SIEM players, reinforcing its growth in the cybersecurity sector.

InvestingPro Insights

Palo Alto Networks' strong market position and financial performance are reflected in recent InvestingPro data. The company boasts a substantial market capitalization of $128.57 billion, underscoring its prominence in the cybersecurity sector. With a revenue of $8.03 billion over the last twelve months and a robust revenue growth of 16.46%, Palo Alto Networks continues to demonstrate its ability to expand in a competitive market.

InvestingPro Tips highlight the company's strengths and potential areas of concern. One tip notes that Palo Alto Networks is "Trading at a low P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth," which aligns with the company's positive outlook and management's optimism about future product growth. This could indicate potential value for investors, especially considering the projected easier comparisons in the second half of the fiscal year.

Another relevant InvestingPro Tip states that the company "Operates with a moderate level of debt," which is particularly important given the focus on Free Cash Flow in the article. This moderate debt level supports management's ability to maintain their FCF margin target of 37.5% for fiscal year 2025.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 16 additional tips for Palo Alto Networks, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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