General market theme
The main event of the week was the Fed meeting on monetary policy yesterday, and the central bank disappointed investors with their decision and the forward guidance they offered. The Fed decided to leave rates unchanged at this time as everyone expected, but most of the market participants were looking forward to a bullish tone from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen that would hint towards an almost certain move before the end of the year.
However, Yellen appeared rather conservative and tied the possibility of a rate hike to a strong rebound of the labor market, and that took the air off dollar’s wings. As a result the dollar’s outlook still remains mixed, and we need to wait until next month’s employment data to assess whether we should prepare for a stronger dollar towards the end of the year.
Price action highlights
The euro rallied to the upside on the back of the Fed meeting and made it to the 1.1200 area before the day was over. Fed’s conservative tone allowed the single currency to profit, and this morning the euro is already hiking higher towards the 1.1250 level on the back of investors dumping dollars to rebalance their portfolios.
We need to be patient though as this strength might not last long, as the euro has its own problems and soon investors will realize that a stronger dollar towards the end of the year is a much more preferable position than betting on the euro.
The cable also benefited from the Fed event and looked to the upside, having reached the 1.3050 area, and this morning the pound continues to gain against the dollar.
However, we need to note that recent Brexit-related concerns are keeping momentum at low levels, as investors are hesitating to load their portfolios with British pounds as we get closer to the end of the year and a potential date for triggering Article 50. The 1.3100 area is the important barrier for the pound at this time, and for any serious gains to come along the UK currency needs to clear it first.
Focus of the day
Apart from an early ECB Economic Bulletin this morning there’s really nothing too important scheduled for the day ahead. The release of the Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales reports from the US along with the Eurozone Consumer Confidence levels are not expected to take much of a toll on the price action, and investors will look to readjust their portfolios on the back of the Fed meeting yesterday.
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