Wheat: Trend Down?
Two years ago I wrote the '...band of support doing from 2005 to 2006 that you can see on the left of the Monthly Chart above.' and I further clarified that writing last year by detailing the area as 'It is made up of levels at 357%, 339 %, 337 14, 321 % and 292.'. I could stop now as that is where we have been heading all this time, not necessarily this past year but over many years. This past year we tried up to test the combo of 2008-todate Downtrend (currently 468) and the 5 Year MA resistance (currently 526 %). The market managed to penetrate the Downtrend - no closes over it - but baulked at the pressure brought by the 5 Year MA and rejected it by moving back lower. This past Dec saw the low for the year 2017 though we finished strongly.
However, it was also the fourth lowest month since 2007...not Bullish inspiring I'm afraid. Nevertheless, the band of support previously mentioned might be quite strong as the market has been trying to avoid it for over a decade. I'd suggest only consecutive monthly closes over 550 would negate the downside and put it into proper Neutral as it seems prices need to test down to see if they can rise up. With all but one MA still heading south (and that one might well do so soon) I'm minded to keep the bullet point at fully Bearish unless we have something dramatic happen.
Disclaimer: ADM Investor Services International Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Member of The London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. Registered in England No. 2547805 a subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities.
These Investments may entail above average financial risk of loss, and investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances and investment experience permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to certain customers due to regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere. © 2014 ADM Investor Services International Limited 2014.