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Weak Global PMI Data Limits Upside For Stocks

Published 20/11/2014, 15:55

Europe

Shares in Europe took a turn for the worse on Thursday thanks to manufacturing and service sector purchasing manager surveys that indicated Europe’s economy is far from out of the woods yet despite hope offered by a recovery in German investor confidence on Wednesday.

French PMI's were weaker falling to 47.6 in manufacturing and 48.4 in services while German PMI’s were also down with the manufacturing survey falling to 50 and services to 52.1 resulting in the composite Eurozone PMI falling from 52.1 to a 16-month low of 51.4.

In the UK, better than expected retail sales and gains from Babcock International Group (LONDON:BAB) and Johnson Matthey (LONDON:JMAT) were not enough to undo anxieties of a slowdown in China which weighed on the mining sector.

UK retail sales picked up in October rising 0.8% after a drop of 0.4% in September. Mild weather continued to dampen clothing sales but furniture sales jumped lagging the booming housing market earlier in the year.

Falling iron ore and Copper prices hampered mining stocks Anglo American (LONDON:AAL), Rio Tinto (LONDON:RIO) and Bhp Billiton (LONDON:BLT) on Thursday after Chinese data implied a further reduction in industrial metal demand from the world’s largest consumer of commodities.

Following the announcement of a new contract with the ministry of defence, Babcock announced strong interim profit growth.

Johnson Matthey gained after lifting its full year guidance.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (LONDON:RBS) shares were lower after a fine from the FCA and Bank of England for IT failures.

 

US

Markets in the US had a rocky start after jobless claims and manufacturing PMIs missed expectations and data from abroad soured prospects for the global recovery but a huge rebound in consumer confidence lifted sentiment later on.

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Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) shares rallied as much as 8% after the company beat profits estimates and saw its first rise in same-store sales in a year thanks to improved product sales from the likes of the iPhone 6 and wearable technology.

 

FX

Mixed messages from the FOMC yesterday led to a day of mixed results for the US Dollar, the British pound was a stand-out performer after improved retail sales data while the euro fell on missed PMIs.

USD/JPY reached new 7-year highs busting straight through 118 and coming 2 pips shy of 119 overnight on the assumption of more stimulus from Japan and the removal of stimulus in the US.

GBP/USD has formed an interim base at 1.56 with a completed double bottom pattern possible on a close above 1.5735 that could perhaps point the way for a move back to 1.59.

EUR/USD chopped back and forth around the 1.2550 level with weak data in Europe damaging the chance of a reversal higher following a less hawkish Fed in Wednesday’s minutes.

 

Commodities

Commodities recovered on Thursday thanks to a reprieve in the US dollar rally.

It was a volatile late session on Wednesday for gold which saw an unexplained sell-off through $1,180 only to fully recover the losses an hour later then falling again after the Fed minutes. Results of surveys on the Swiss gold referendum could add volatility until the final result. On Thursday prices moved back toward $1,190 per oz.

Crude Oil came off its lows with traders unwilling to push it much further down without the results from OPEC next week.

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