USD/JPY: Trend?
The Weekly Key Reversal Up pointed out last time that occurred six weeks ago continued to have a Bullish effect on the market. Initially we rose gently but slowed as we approached the old H+S Neckline (currnetly 107.75) before punching violently up through it. We then overcame resistances of the 50% Fib of the 2016 move at 108.86, the Medium MA (currently 108.68) and finally the recent Nov 2017 - Mar 2018 50% Fib at 109.63...all these are now support... before forming that classic of Japanese Candlestick Patterns (...a patter that incidentally only works about a third of the time...) a Bearish Doji Star last Wednesday.
The Bearish Doji Star did not work alone, the Long MA (currently 110.20) was nearby and helped pressure it back down all the way to Friday's low on the Medium MA support. We are currnetly in between the Medium MA support and the Long MA resistance and that defines us basically as Neutral. Overall, MAs tend to support this Neutral stance as two are up, one down and one sort of...down. This short term Neutral stance echoes the very Large Sideways Triangle we've seen since 2016 which is defined by the oft mentioned and effective 2016-to-date Uptrend (currently 104.87) and the 2015-todate Downtrend (currently 112.61). It will seem likely we'll stay within those supports & resistances i l l we choose otherwise...hence the bullet point above goes into Neutral.
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