Following my commentary last month we had our second consecutive close up over the then key 63.78 level and rallied higher where we hit resistance in the form of the Medium MA (currently 64.36) and Long MA (currently 64.38) before backing down a little. However, we then made a superb Key Reversal Up mid Feb that pushed prices up straight through the MAs and into fresh territory including over the key 50% Fibs at 64.38 (Nov 2017 – Jan 2018 move) and 64.56 (Sep 2017 – Jan 2018 move). We then consolidated over these levels before an attempt at the key Nov 2016-to-date Downtrend at 65.21.
This is where we currently are…we’ve tried up and over the Downtrend but as yet not closed over it once.
So where now? It very much depends on consecutive closes over the Downtrend. If we do close over then The Nov high at 65.54 and the Sep high at 65.89 may come into view. If not and we close lower then we look to test down to the previously mentioned 50% Fib and MA supports. One more thing to note rather than immediately respond…is the whole action since 2017 a huge Reverse H+S Bottom? One to ponder…in the meantime, given recent action and the upward turning and moving MAs it is appropriate that I move the bullet point above into Neutral.
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