USD/INR
In last month's review I pointed out:
The turn lower that happened last Thursday was with a Bearish Dark Cloud Cover Pattern combined with a Bearish Closing Long Black Marubozo Pattern. Prices followed through lower the next day but a little unconvincingly with an Indecisive Spinning Top closing just over the Long MA. The next few days will be crucial for this pair. If the Bearish DK is valid then we need to see prices move lower ill at least the 50% Fib of this whole Bullish action at 64.72.
This duly happened during the course of this past month and we've even had three closes below the 64.72 level this past week. However, there is a kink. The market is finding it currently difficult to try lower through the combination of the 61.8% Fib of the August - September move at 64.45 and the Medium MA support (currently 64.48). Admittedly, the market has had only three days here but it does look a little tired from the overall Bearishness of October. Remember, we've had two Bullish Golden Crosses of MAs in September and anther actually in October itself and all this with the market was heading still lower.
For good orders sake, we have an imminent Bearish Dead Cross of the Short MA down through the Long MA. The actual action during Oct reminded me of a Descending Triangle. However, the more I look at it the less I think it is valid...I'll remove it for next time. The drawn Bearish Channel above is perhaps more likely though it is still too early. The next week will therefore be interesting as to whether we see the Bearish follow on or whether we go back over 64.72. Two consecutive closes over this or under the Med MA would likely indicate the direction. At the moment it would seem more likely to see action lower but we are in a Neutral market caught between the Medium and Long MAs.
This still doesn't take away from the larger picture...which I have marked on the Daily Chart above - is this whole sideways area a Large Bearish Halfway Hesitation? This question is still out there and has not been answered yet though there has been some attempt to get to grips with it.
Support is currently at 64.48(dynamic) - 64.45, 64.37 (dynamic), 63.99, 63.77 - 63.83, 63.56, 63.48, 63.37 and 63.25.
Resistance is currently at 64.72, 64.87(dynamic), 65.00 - 65.04, 65.18, 65.35, 65.42, 65.59 and 65.89.
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