USD/BRL
Sucked in and spat out! Last time we had the superb Key Reversal Up on the Friday and it looked set for a try higher. Not so! The very next day we had a Bearish Open and Close Long Black Marubozo which though with limited follow through nevertheless stymied the Bullish incentive and prices rather than trying higher instead headed lower... though not by much. Mid November and prices tried again to go higher but were thwarted yet again with the Upper Tine of the November 2016 - February 2017 Schiff Pitchfork (currently 3.3112) which halted the rise, an overall Bearish lower high indeed. We had actually formed a Double Top of the October - November action and I'd even drawn a 'X' as to a potential target for such a move at just under 3.1500. All was going well till mid last week when the supply of support between 3.2371 to 3.2045 eventually eked away at the decline and we saw a Key Reversal Up last Wednesday. This has cancelled the 'X' and I'll take it off for next time...maybe.
The reason is that last Friday we had a Bearish Harami on the Daily Chart, right after two big days trying higher. I think that both 'X' and 'X3' (the old Halfway Hesitation target) are invalid and at the same time potential. The move up after the Reverse H+S to the full 'X3' level has not been fulfilled and neither has the move lower after the DT to 'X' also seemingly failed. The more I look at it the more likely I think we may see the Third Way of Markets - Neutral - and this despite three out of four MAs heading higher. With all this in mind, I've decided to leave the bullet point as it is in mildly Bullish but to make this notation that any more of this and I'll move it to Neutral. Finally, I note the multiple MA crossovers around mid-Nov...they are not a Bow Tie Formation.
Support is currently at 3.2435, 3.2371, 3.2233, 3.2174, 3.2000, 3.1899 (dynamic), 3.1816 (dynamic) - 3.1795 and 3.1747.
Resistance is currently at 3.2670, 3.2728, 3.2825, 3.2882, 3.3112 (dynamic), 3.3282 and 3.3353.
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