FTSE 100 today: Shares end flat as bond jitters keep investors cautious
After laying the case for all three states of the market last time, I finished by writing:
I'm sill not totally convinced of the case for the upside but suggest mildly bullish is better than the alternatives at the moment.
Prices at the start of the past month did have a try higher but then failed and tumbled down through the supports, the Fibs and basically all four MA supports...all these now becoming resistances. Two weeks ago on a Wednesday we had a Dead Cat Bounce and we've since made new lows but here's the thing: the move down seems to be very, very tentative.
There is seemingly a whole lot of support at or around the May low and lower...possibly stretching down to sub 3.0200, that is just sitting there and the market is looking and testing to see just how large and substantial it is and how far it stretches (I'd say maybe 3.0200ish but it could be to just to 3.0400). I'm not sure who will win in this tug of war - just look at the confusing Key Reversals on the Daily Chart - one initially down and then just over a week later one up.
I am certain that we will not continue being bearish unless this band 3.0860 - 3.0400 (possibly 3.0200) is not dealt with. Upside, we'd need to have consecutive closes over the combination of Long MA (currently 3.2160) and Fib band 3.2093 - 3.2223 to turn it bullish. Hence, I've decided to move the bullet point above into neutral to see how things work out. After all we have just two MAs pointing down whilst one is only just up and the other sideways.
Support is currently at 3.1068, 3.0861, 3.0797, 3.0593, 3.0514, 3.0380, 3.0296, 2.9972 and 2.9721. Resistance is currently at 3.1376, 3.1597, 3.1623 (dynamic), 3.1795, 3.1992 3.2093 - 3.2223
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