I was very concerned last time I wrote on the daily chart two months ago that despite every indicator saying higher. My experience was nagging me to move the bullet point above away from full bullish, which I did. I’m glad I did as we have one more attempt on the topside at resistance between 118.35 – 118.84 before prices turned over and we have formed a double top, possibly a rounded top. The pullback was seemingly inevitable once prices reached a decent piece of resistance, namely 118.35, 118.64 and 118.84.
A second attempt was appropriate, but then prices faltered and we headed back down. I had no real support until 111.96 and that’s what the market supposed as well and we saw prices fall till we’d hit the support twice, almost making a smaller horn bottom. However, the action back up has been seemingly negated by the Indecisive doji cross formed last Friday and we are awfully close to closing at a low for 2017 in this pair.
Support is evident in addition to previously mentioned levels at 111.96, 111.17, the Medium MA at 110.08(dynamic) and the key 50% Fibs at 109.89 and 108.86. Now if we should take all the action mid – late Jan till about now and then we could have a potential move once we get going lower down to about 109.75. However, we do have a lot of support to overcome in the meantime. Topside, well we’d need a move over 116.00 with consecutive closes to negate the bearishness, seemingly unlikely at the moment. With all this in mind, I’ll keep the bullet point mildly bearish and see.
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