So many things to write about...let's start with:
'Bearish Bow Tie Formation over the 22nd-23rd of Mar. I say possibly as though the order of exit is correct, it does not look very Bearish nor did the order of entry occur correctly. Nevertheless, look to see between the 12th and 20th if a sudden bearishness occurs...this ought to be related.'
We did see a move down to make the new lows for 2017 from the 11th till the 20th when the market gave up trying lower and formed a rare Gap Up. I mentioned that the signal point didn't look too Bearish nor was the '...order of entry...' correct and that helps in understanding the strength of the move to a new low but also the lack of follow through. Next, '...we have a Key Reversal Down on the Monthly Chart.
I know this is usually a good indicator of weakening markets but as I always caution on anything JPY related...'. This did help in conjunction with the Bearish Bow Tie but if you look at the Monthly Chart today you will see at least a Bullish Doji... and I would suggest more a Bullish Dragonfly Doji...so though we had the move down...it doesn't look sustained. Finally '...the coincidence of the Tines crossover on the 13th... watch out if not for Bearishness then possible change or reinforcement of trend or just a very volatile day. I also note the proximity of the key 50% Fib at 108.86support as well as the Long MA (currently 108.43) support.'. This is the most important piece from last time.
The combination of the 108.86 Fib support plus the Long MA (currently 109.04) support produced a Bullish effect such that though they were both penetrated on a number of consecutive days, they never had two consecutive closes underneath. Combine this with the timing effect of the Tine Crossover and the Bearish Bow Tie and you can see why the period around the 13th (circled) was so important. The 13th saw the 108.85 Fib and the Long MA penetrated but it also was the seed of its own impotence by failing to see any capitalisation of the try lower and its eventual ultimate failure. Since then we have risen, Gapped, Key Reversed Up (you know my thoughts on KRs in JPY pairs) and though trying higher we've seemingly lost the way a bit...hence the Monthly Doji previously mentioned.
MAs are sidelining or rather ending a Trend and moving mainly sideways and it could be ripe for a continuation of a neutral bullet point. That is what I'll do following my own rules. However, this doesn't take into account the current placing of where the market is within the Daily Chart. There is a fairly free area above up to the combination of the Bearish Upper Tine of the 2017 Schiff Pitchfork (currently 113.15), key 2017 50% Fib at 113.38 and the Medium MA (currently 113.39). We do have the minor Fib resistance at 111.96 and 112.14 and the high at 112.19 but they are not as good as the former which is seemingly very solid resistance. This will tie in with the overall Bearish Schiff Pitchfork of the market and so further attempts may be higher but will run into solid resistance and could be rejected and possibly see prices lower... hence possibly neutral but with an interesting range.
Support is currently at 111.17, 110.43, 109.89, 109.57 - 109.48, 109.04 (dynamic), 108.86.
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