For this longer term view of Rupee I have decided to use the Monthly Chart! I was cautiously neutral last time but with that in mind we actually did have an interesting year’s worth of action starting with a drop down to the old 2011-to-date Uptrend (currently 62.89) which was breached but the market failed to exploit the tear and we have since resumed an upward path using the breached Uptrend as the angle of attack for a try higher.
However, all this movement only meant we ended up on the year by only about 2%! This I guess ties in with the neutral bullet point I originally tagged last time! We are currently in a bullish phase but we have come up against some significant resistance – namely the 50% Fib of the 2013-2014 move down at 63.51!
This looks significant because it has allowed breaches but no closes over it (apart from before its creation of course). Hence, the bullet point goes mildly bullish with a question mark against it. Additionally, on the Weekly Chart we have a Bearish Matching Pattern for the last action and I would very much like to see that played out.
Support is numerous but the significant areas are the Fib band 62.13 – 62.26, the 1 Year MA (currently 61.19), the nearby Lower Tine of the 2011 – 2013 Schiff Pitchfork (currently 60.97), the 50% Fib at 60.08 & the combined Fib/lows/MA support area between 58.03 – 58.22!
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