An accelerating bond-market sell-off has unnerved US stock markets which look set for a lower start on Thursday ahead of weekly jobless claims, the last piece of employment data before Friday’s all-important non-farm payrolls report.
Stocks began the week pushing towards new records but increasing global market turbulence including 2015 highs in crude oil, plummeting Chinese shares, political uncertainty in the UK not to mention the widespread dumping of government bonds has seen the tide turn lower.
The linkages across global markets have become quite stark and they all tie back to the Federal Reserve. That being the case, Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s comments on Wednesday that stocks look a little overvalued didn’t help matters.
GDP data coupled with the latest trade balance tell us there was a sharp slowdown in the US economy in the first quarter and could cause the Fed to hesitate on hiking rates this year. The US dollar has fallen alongside rate-hike expectations and crude oil which is sold in dollars has risen. With higher oil prices, inflation expectations have picked up causing a sell-off in government bonds is sharper than it might otherwise have been because of the drop in liquidity caused by central bank intervention.
Quarterly earnings will be reported by Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Apache and Time Inc before the opening bell while CBS and Monster Beverage report after the close.
Futures suggest the:
S&P 500 will open 13 points lower at 2,067 with the
Dow Jones expected to open 106 points lower at 17,735 and the
Nasdaq 100 32 points lower at 4,347.
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