Sugar
As usual...I feel obliged to reprise my January 2018 Annual commentary on this commodity:
The Neutrality of the last seven months has built up a possible Bear Flag formation ..somewhere in the 6.00 area with earlier targets possible...which I hesitate to add...
Additionally, I will again reprise..
I've decided upon reflection to add an 'X' at about 8.35 as the very near term target for a move lower should the Bear Flag scenario play out.
I changed the scale last time so that it would show where we are in relation to the Bear Flag Target in the 8.35 area above. Meanwhile, this month we took an excessive flyer on the downside and tested the Sep 2015 low but not closing below it. Because of the faster than normal decline, we've had a pullback up and even some crumbs for the Bulls out there with a Daily Bullish Key Reversal last midweek.
Yet this rise has seemingly not followed through and we finished this week lower over the week and lower...by a little...than the previous week's close. The Mar-to-date Downtrend (currently 11.69) is pierced but intact from the point of having no closes over it...so it s i l l has at least some validity and actually held down Friday's acton. We must now look at the immediate support/resistance...i.e. the High and Low of the KR...11.89 - 11.29. After that it is very much a reprint of part of last month's commentary 'We seem to have a dearth of significant support nearby and some of it quite aged...from the early part of this Century. The nearest supports...aren't that strong and we have the first near term significant one as the Sep 2015 low at 10.78.
After that...well... you can look at the Daily Chart above for those labelled. Topside...it's easy...to stop this decline we need to overcome and conclusively and consecutively close over the combination of the 2016-to-date Downtrend (currently 13.07), the recent 50% Fib at 13.85 plus both the Medium and the Long MAs (13.16 and 13.71 respectively)...Big asks!'. I've updated all the non-italic numbers. All MAs point downwards so the bullet point stays fully Bearish.
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