UBS sees gold rising to $5,000/oz by first half of 2027
Last month I pondered my 'Crayons' covering my Annual Review back in Dec 2017 and included this excerpt from on reviewing the Long Term Charts at the time:
The Neutrality of the last seven months has built up a possible Bear Flag formation...somewhere in the 6.00 area with earlier targets possible...which I hesitate to add [...] I've decided upon reflection to add an 'X' at about 8.35 as the very near term target for a move lower should the Bear Flag scenario play out.
I did not see it happening last month and I do not see it happening just now...but I'm conscious of the possibility and the implications. This past month has been for the most part drab apart from two Patterns and one incident. The incident was the Bullish Pipe Bottom between Tuesday and Wednesday this week. An interesting turn around which saw the fall happen basically from nothing much and then recover soon thereafter. The Patterns are firstly the Bearish Bow Tie Formation on the MAs. I wrote about this last time but to recap...basically...when you have three or more MAs coming in together and then expanding outwards when they cross near simultaneously...this is a Bow Tie Formation...you can see this on the Daily Chart above in Feb.
The name is because of the way the Pattern looks...like a gentleman's bowtie. However, in this case the MAs are in the wrong order. Usually, you have low to high or high to low as you approach and then the opposite way when you expand after crossover. Here they are mixed with the Long MA being in the middle in both cases. Nevertheless, I'm minded to watch this action as typically between 15 - 20 days after crossover you have the move in the same direction as the Bow Tie...in this case down.
The period in question is between the 28th of Feb and the 7th of Mar...we're right in it. This is where the second Pattern comes in. We are on for a Key Reversal on the Weekly Chart. If we close today above 13.68 we'll have a KR Up and if we close below 13.38 then we'll have a KR Down. If in between...we'll have an Outside Day...probably Indecisive and indicative of most of 2018's action. Support below is the Middle Tine of the Jan 2011- Oct 2016 Schiff Pitchfork (currently 12.80) and resistance, apart from the MAs is the Jun - Nov 2017 50% Fib at 14.01. With all MAs pointing down(ish) I'm minded to keep the bullet point above the same at mildly Bearish.
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