We're down 50 odd tics from last time and in this past month we've tried the upside but the resistance combination of the Upper Tine of the May - August Schiff Pitchfork (currently 13.95) and the Medium MA (currently 14.10) which I have mentioned already quite at length during the past two months, caused the move higher to expire over a two day period with a weird combination of a Bearish Harami, Pipe Top and a Bearish Matching Pattern...if you're going to kill a move then that's the way to do it!
OK - I know it had two consecutive closes over both the MA and the SP but I point out it was only just over as a second close and as a subjective judgement (this is after all an art not a science) and with experience, there is no way the lower action on the 18th...almost a Key Reversal Down...could be seen as fulfilling the two consecutive close over rule...so there! We are still heading lower at the moment and the only reason I've left the question mark on the Bearish bullet point above is that we are so close to all the key recent resistances that it may only take a single concerted effort to turn the market around. However, my additional points over the past two months still remain.
They are - you need consecutive closes (real ones!) over the Medium MA to move the market into Neutral and consecutive closes over the Long MA (currently 16.32) to turn the market Bullish. So we still gently travel lower within the Middle and Upper Tine of the Mildly Bearish AP...until we don't!
Finally, I am mindful that there will be a jump next time in prices as I use a continuous Daily Chart above and the front month has moved from October to March. Nevertheless, support is currently at 13.53, 13.01, 12.92 and 12.53 - 12.34.
Resistance is currently at 13.69 (dynamic), 13.84, 13.95 (dynamic), 14.10 (dynamic), 14.15, 14.25, 14.58, 15.15, 15.37, 15.95 and 16.32 (dynamic).
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