The last week has been pretty stable for the pound, with GBPEUR exchange rates holding above 1.17 quite comfortably, and GBPUSD exchange rates above 1.25. The reason for the recent weakness in the US dollar came from President Trump himself, as he commented that the U.S Dollar was "too strong," indicating that the government would like a weaker dollar as this would help exports. This is alongside weak data on Friday which has now signalled to the markets that an interest rate hike in June from the Fed is now unlikely (great news for those of you buying the dollar!).
Moving on now to the French elections this month. Things are getting too close to call with both candidates looking likely to win in the first round; it is said that Marine Le Pen is expected to win the first round of elections and then lose at the final stage - so this is what the markets are pricing in. Opinion polls are also showing a similar story, but as we all know, they are not the most accurate indicators. If the last year has taught us anything, it is to expect the unexpected when it comes to politics, so though a Le Pen victory doesn't look likely, I wouldn't disregard it completely. The positive for euro buyers is that these elections could provide some great opportunities amongst the volatility, so if you do have a euro requirement coming up, it is worth keeping an eye on opinion polls and the news, as this is what will be moving the euro over the next 3-4 weeks.
Now onto the pound. We have been pleasantly surprised with stable economic figures this month so far, however, it hasn't been enough to justify a strong move upwards for the currency. This week is pretty light as far as economic data is concerned with the main focus being retail sales figures on Friday. For me, the main event to watch will be BoE Governor Mark Carney's speech on Thursday morning in Washington.